교통사고모형 개발에서의 함수식 도출 방법론에 관한 연구 Methodology for Determining Functional Forms in Developing Statistical Collision Models
pp.189-199
PURPOSES: The purpose of this study is to propose a new methodology for developing statistical collision models and to show the validation results of the methodology. METHODS: A new modeling method of introducing variables into the model one by one in a multiplicative form is suggested. A method for choosing explanatory variables to be introduced into the model is explained. A method for determining functional forms for each explanatory variable is introduced as well as a parameter estimating procedure. A model selection method is also dealt with. Finally, the validation results is provided to demonstrate the efficacy of the final models developed using the method suggested in this study. RESULTS: According to the results of the validation for the total and injury collisions, the predictive powers of the models developed using the method suggested in this study were better than those of generalized linear models for the same data. CONCLUSIONS: Using the methodology suggested in this study, we could develop better statistical collision models having better predictive powers. This was because the methodology enabled us to find the relationships between dependant variable and each explanatory variable individually and to find the functional forms for the relationships which can be more likely non-linear.