KOREASCHOLAR

Random Forest 모형과 SHAP 기법을 활용한 개인형 이동장치 교통사고 유형별 사고심각도 영향요인 분석 Analysis of Factors Influencing the Severity of Traffic Crashes by Type of Traffic Crashes on Personal Mobility Using Random Forest Model and SHAP Technique

양윤철, 박수진, 이동윤, 정경옥
  • 언어KOR
  • URLhttp://db.koreascholar.com/Article/Detail/439415
한국도로학회논문집
제27권 제1호 통권129호 (2025.02)
pp.89-99
한국도로학회 (Korean Society of Road Engineers)
초록

In this study, we aim to classify personal mobility (PM)-related traffic crash data into four categories: PM-to-vehicle, PM-to-pedestrian, PM-single, and vehicle-to-PM crashes, and analyze the factors influencing the severity of each crash type. To overcome the limitations of existing studies in explaining the impact of independent variables on ordinal dependent variables, a random forest model was combined with the Shapley additive explanation technique. This approach visualizes the influence of independent variables on a dependent variable, providing clearer insights and enhancing interpretability. The analysis of PM traffic accidents, categorized into at-fault, single-vehicle, and victim accidents, revealed distinct key factors for each type. The main contributors to the severity of crashes caused by PM are traffic violations by teenagers and collisions with elderly pedestrians. Single-vehicle accidents were predominantly caused by overturn incidents, with inadequate driving skills among PM users aged 40 years and older, and significantly increasing severity. Victim accidents primarily occur at intersections, where the behavior of the at-fault driver and age of the PM user are critical factors influencing the severity. We identified various factors influencing the severity of PM crashes by type, highlighting the need for tailored policy measures. Proposed policies include physically separating bicycle–pedestrian shared spaces and strictly regulating illegal PM sidewalk riding, introducing PM licenses for teenagers to ensure compliance with traffic rules, and implementing regular safety education programs for all age groups. Although this study applied a new analytical technique, it relied on limited crash data, thus limiting the results to estimates.

목차
ABSTRACT
1. 서론
2. PM 사고심각도 영향 분석 관련 선행연구
3. 분석방법론
4. PM 사고심각도 영향요인 분석
    4.1. PM 가해자 사고심각도 영향요인 분석
    4.2. PM 피해자 사고심각도 영향요인 분석
4.3. 소결
5. 결론
감사의 글
REFERENCES
저자
  • 양윤철(우송대학교 철도경영학과 학부과정) | Yang Yun-cheol
  • 박수진(고려대학교 미래건설환경융합연구소 연구교수) | Park Su Jin
  • 이동윤(한국교통연구원 도로교통연구본부 주임연구원) | Lee Dong-youn Corresponding author
  • 정경옥(한국교통연구원 도로교통연구본부 선임연구위원) | Jeong Gyeong-ok