한국응용곤충학회 학술대회논문집 세계곤충학회(ICE2012)1주년 기념 공동 심포지엄 및 2013 추계학술발표회 , 신기후변화 시나리오 대응 곤충관리전략 국제심포지엄 (p.18-18)

Predicting the potential geographic distribution of Thrips palmi in Korea, using the CLIMEX model

키워드 :
Melon thrips,RCP8.5 climate change scenario,Risk assessment

초록

Thrips palmi Karny was introduced and first recorded in 1993 in Korea. This species has become a serious pest of vegetable and ornamental crops. CLIMEX simulation was applied to T. palmi to predict the potential geographic distribution in Korea under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario. In the CLIMEX simulation, ecoclimatic index (EI) was calculated, and compared in each simulated year and each simulated location. The map comparisons showed a good agreement between simulated and present distributions of T. palmi, indicating that the CLIMEX model was well explained and appropriate for prediction of future distributions of this species in Korea. In near future, until a year of 2020, all the western and eastern parts of Korea showed favorable to marginal suitability for T. palmi populations in fields. After the year of 2040, the potential distributions are shifted from no persistent to favorable for establishment and persistence from coastal to interior of the Korean peninsula except a north-eastern interior region which is the northernmost part of high mountains (Baekdu-Daegan) area in South Korea. Based on simulation results, T. palmi would overcome its weather restriction in near future under a severe climate change scenario, thus, pest management measures and strategies should be re-constructed in Korea, with further studies including interspecific competition and understanding ecosystem change due to climate change.