한국응용곤충학회 학술대회논문집 2017 한국응용곤충학회 추계학술발표회 및 국제심포지엄 , 해충관리의 정책적 강화 (p.20-20)

Potential risk mapping for range expansion of insect pests with climate change and socio-economic scenario: A case Study of Melon Thrips.

키워드 :
Species distribution model,Representative Concentration Pathways,The Shared Socio-Economic Pathways,Thrips palmi Karny

초록

From simple niche models to machine learning methods, there have been intensive efforts to understand the potentialdistribution of species in last two decades. Especially in the agricultural sector, recent SDM, Species Distribution Models,studies highly enthused to predict the potential distribution of invasive species under Climate Change. Beyond the distribution,efforts are needed to assess potential risk caused by the target pest. The Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) are scenariosfor climate change impacts and adaptation measures. We used MaxEnt model to predict potential distribution of melonthrips with two RCPs (4.5, 8.5) and three SSPs (SSP1, SSP2, SSP3) scenarios. In agricultural land, the potential distributionof melon thrips increases under climate change, but the impact is reduced with the development-oriented scenario, SSP3.