This study examined the regime shifts in the temperature difference between Daegu and Jeju for the month of August using a Markov regime switching model. Using the long-term time series of averaged monthly temperature in August for 1923- 2015, we found the two regimes in the temperature difference with the regime shift taking place in 1952. The first regime, which spans the period from 1923 to 1951, is identified as Daegu, on average, being 0.2°C hotter than Jeju. The second regime, which starts in 1952 and persists until 2015, is characterized as the average temperature of Jeju being 0.4°C higher than that of Daegu. The results are consistent with a regime shift in the temperature of Jeju itself from a low temperature regime to a high temperature regime.

Abstract
  1. 서론
  2. 연구 자료 및 연구 모형
  3. 실증분석 결과

• 배진호(건국대학교 경제학과, Department of Economics, Konkuk University) | Jinho Bae Correspondence