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A Study on the Impact of China’s Monetary Policy on South Korea’s Exchange Rate KCI 등재

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산경연구논집 (JIDB) (산경연구논집)
한국유통과학회 (Korea Distribution Science Association)
초록

Purpose - The adjustment of one country's monetary policy can cause the macroeconomic change of other countries. Due to this, this paper attempts to analyze the impact of China’s monetary policy on South Korea’s exchange rate.
Research design, data, and methodology - Based on the flexible-price monetary model, sets of annual time series from 1980 to 2017 are employed to perform an empirical estimation. The vector error correction model is also used to exploit the short-run relationship between both of them. Of course, the South Korea’s real GDP, the China’s real GDP, South Korea’s interest rate, the South Korea’s interest rate and the South Korea’s monetary supply are treated as independent variables in this paper.
Result - The long-run findings reveal that the China’s money supply has a negative effect on South Korea’s exchange rate. Respectively, the short-run findings depicts that the China’s money supply has negative a effect on South Korea’s exchange rate. Of course, other variables selected in this paper also have an effect on South Korea’s exchange rate whatever positive or negative.
Conclusions - As the empirical evidence shows, the China’s monetary policy has a negative effect on South Korea’s exchange rate whenever in the long run or in the short run.

목차
Abstract
 1. Introduction
 2. Literature Review
 3. Methodology
 4. Empirical Analysis
  4.1. Basic Statistics
  4.2. Unit Root Test
  4.3. Cointegration Test
  4.4. Causality Test
  4.5. Vector Error Correction Estimation
  4.6. Impulse Response Function
  4.7. Variance Decomposition
 5. Conclusion
 References
저자
  • Yugang He(Department of International Trade, Chonbuk National University)