한국지구과학회지 제39권 제4호 (p.327-341)

Future Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Mechanisms over the Korean Peninsula Using a Regional Climate Model Simulation

키워드 :
global warming,extreme temperature,extreme precipitation,extreme event,HadGEM3-RA

목차

Abstract
Introduction
Model Data and Methods
  HadGEM3-RA regional model data
  Criteria for extreme temperature and precipitation
Results
  Changes in trends of extreme temperatureand precipitation
  Examination of mechanisms for simulatedextreme temperature and precipitation events
Discussion and Conclusions
Acknowledgments
References

초록

Extreme temperatures and precipitations are expected to be more frequently occurring due to the ongoing global warming over the Korean Peninsula. However, few studies have analyzed the synoptic weather patterns associated with extreme events in a warming world. Here, the atmospheric patterns related to future extreme events are first analyzed using the HadGEM3-RA regional climate model. Simulations showed that the variability of temperature and precipitation will increase in the future (2051-2100) compared to the present (1981-2005), accompanying the more frequent occurrence of extreme events. Warm advection from East China and lower latitudes, a stagnant anticyclone, and local foehn wind are responsible for the extreme temperature (daily T>38 o C) episodes in Korea. The extreme precipitation cases (>500 mm day−1 ) were mainly caused by mid-latitude cyclones approaching the Korean Peninsula, along with the enhanced Changma front by supplying water vapor into the East China Sea. These future synoptic-scale features are similar to those of present extreme events. Therefore, our results suggest that, in order to accurately understand future extreme events, we should consider not only the effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gases or aerosol increases, but also small-scale topographic conditions and the internal variations of climate systems.