산경연구논집 (IJIDB) Vol. 10 No. 9 (p.53-60)

An Empirical Study on Mutual Influence between Economic Index and Distribution Industry in Korean

한국 유통산업이 한국 경제에 미치는 상호영향력에 관한 실증적 연구
키워드 :
Economic Index,Distribution,Distribution Industry,Impulse Response Function,Unit Root

목차

Abstract
1. 서론
2. 선행연구의 검토
3. 연구자료 수집 및 연구모형
   3.1. 연구자료
   3.2. 연구모형
4. 실증연구 결과분석
   4.1. 기초통계 및 상관관계분석
   4.2. 단위근과 공적분 검정 결과 분석
   4.3. VAR 모형 결과분석
   4.4. Granger 인과관계 검정 결과분석
5. 결론
References

초록

Purpose - The objective of this paper is to discover if there exists a relationship between the economic index and distribution industry index in Korean. Because of the distribution industry boom in the recent years, a lot of interest in the relationship between the economic index and distribution industry index in Korean and the economy has been generated. This article examine on the mutual influence between economic index and distribution industry index in Korean.
Research design, data, and methodology - For this purpose, we use the vector-auto regression model, impulse response function and variance decomposition of the economic index and distribution industry index, Granger causality test using weekly data on the economic index and distribution industry price index in korea. The sample period is covering from January 2, 2010 to August 31, 2019. The VAR model can also be linked to cointegration analysis. Cointegration Analysis makes possible to find a mechanism causing x and y to move around a long-run equilibrium (Engle and Granger, 1987). This equilibrium means that external shocks may separate the series temporarily at any particular time, but there will be an overall tendency towards some type of long-run equilibrium. If variables are found to have this tendency they are said to be cointegrated and a long-run relationship between these series is established. These econometric tools have been applied widely into economics and business areas to analyze intertemporal linkages between different time series.
Results - This research showed following main results. First, from the basic statistic analysis of the economic index and distribution industry index in Korean, the economic index and the distribution industry index in korea have unit roots. Second, there is at least one cointegration between the economic index and distribution industry index in Korean. Finally, the correlation between of the economic index and the distribution industry index in korea is (+) 0.528876.
Conclusions - We find that the distribution industry price index Granger cause the economic index in korea. As a consequence, the distribution industry index affect the economic index in Korean. The distribution industry index to the economic index is stronger than that from the economic index to the distribution industry index.