산업경영시스템학회지 Vol. 42 No. 3 (p.109-115)

Market Share Forecast Reflecting Competitive Situations in the Telecommunication Service Industry

통신서비스산업에서 경쟁상황을 반영한 시장점유율 예측
키워드 :
Demand Forecasting,Telecommunication Service Industry,Market Share

목차

1. Introduction
2. Theoretical Background
   2.1 Telecommunication Service Demand Forecasting
   2.2 Conjoint Analysis
3. Estimating Preferences for Telecommunication Service Attributes
   3.1 Service Attributes and Attribute Levels
   3.2 Measuring the Relative Importance of Attributes
4. Estimating Market Share
   4.1 Initial Market Share
   4.2 Revised Market Share
5. Result
6. Conclusion
References

초록

Most demand forecasting studies for telecommunication services have focused on estimating market size at the introductory stage of new products or services, or on suggesting improvement methods of forecasting models. Although such studies forecast business growth and market sizes through demand forecasting for new technologies and overall demands in markets, they have not suggested more specific information like relative market share, customers’ preferences on technologies or service, and potential sales power. This study focuses on the telecommunication service industry and explores ways to calculate the relative market shares between competitors, considering competitive situations at the introductory stage of a new mobile telecommunication service provider. To reflect the competitive characteristics of the telecommunication markets, suggested is an extended conjoint analysis using service coverage and service switching rates as modification variables. This study is considered to be able to provide strategic implications to businesses offering existing service and ones planning to launch new services. The result of analysis shows that the new service provider has the greatest market share at the competitive situation where the new service covers the whole country, offers about 50% of existing service price, and allows all cellphones except a few while the existing service carrier maintains its price and service and has no response to the new service introduction. This means that the market share of the new service provider soars when it is highly competitive with fast network speed and low price.