To understand the genesis of tropical cyclones (TC), we computed TC genesis probability (GPr) by partitioning a highly localized genesis frequency (GFq) into nearby grid boxes in proportion to the spatial coherence of genesis potential index (GPI). From the analysis of TCs simulated by the Seoul National University Atmosphere Model Version 0 and the observed TCs, it was shown that GPr reasonably converges to GFq when averaged over a long-term period in a decent grid size, supporting its validity as a proxy representing a true TC GPr. The composite anomalies of the gridded GPr in association with the Asia summer monsoon, El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are much less noisy than those of GFq, and consequently are better interpretable. In summary, GPr converges to GFq, varies more smoothly than GFq, represents the spatiotemporal variations of GFq better than GPI, and depicts GFq with greater spatial details than other spatially smoothed GFqs.

Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Data and Analysis Methods
    2.1. Tropical Cyclone Data
    2.2. Computation of TC GPr
3. Results
4. Summary and Conclusion
References

• Jihoon Shin(School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University)
• Chanwoo Song(School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University)
• Siyun Kim(School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University)
• Sungsu Park(School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University) Corresponding author