상하수도학회지 제34권 제2호 (p.105-114)

|Research Papers|
환경신기술인증제도의 운영효과를 모의하기 위한 시스템다이내믹스 컴퓨터 모델의 개발

Development of a system dynamics computer model to simulate the operational effects of the new environmental technology certification system
키워드 :
Computer model,Simulation,System dynamics,New Excellent Technology and Environmental Technology Verification,Policy leverage,컴퓨터 모델,시뮬레이션,시스템다이내믹스,환경신기술 인증 및 검증,정책 지렛대

목차

ABSTRACT
1. 서 론
2. 시스템다이내믹스 모델링 기법
3. 신기술인증제도의 운영에 내재된 피드백루프 메커니즘
4. 환경신기술인증 및 기술검증제도의 효과 분석을 위한 SD 모델
   4.1 피드백루프 메커니즘 및 SD 모델의 개요
   4.2 개발된 SD 컴퓨터 모형의 검증과 주요지표 예측
5. 민감도 분석 및 정책지렛대의 발견
6. 결 론
References

초록

In this study, based on the System Dynamics (SD) methodology, the interrelationship between the factors inherent in the operation of the New Technology Certification System (NTCS) in Korea was identified by a causal map containing a feedback loop mechanism in connection with ‘new technology development investment’, ‘commercialization of new technology’, and ‘sales by new technology’. This conceptualized causal map was applied to the simulation of the operations of the New Excellent Technology and Environmental Technology Verification System (NET&ETV) run by the Ministry of Environment among various NTCSs in Korea. A SD computer simulation model was developed to analyze and predict the operational performance of the NET&ETV in terms of key performance indices such as ‘sales by new technology’. Using this model, we predicted the future operational status the NET&ETV and found a policy leverage that greatly influences the operation of the NET&ETV. Also the sensitivity of the key indicators to changes in the external variables in the model was analyzed to find policy leverage.