Interannual and decadal scale changes in body size of Pacific saury, catch and catch per unit effort were examined to investigate the environmental effects on the stock structure and abundance in the Tsushima Warm Current region. Interannual changes in thermal conditions are responsible for the different occurrence (catch) rates of sized group of the fish. Changes in body size due to environmental variables lead the stock to be homogeneous during the period of high abundance, while one of the reminder cohorts supports the stock during the period of low level of abundance. Migration circuits of two cohorts of saury stock are hypothesized on the basis of short life span and spatio-temporal changes of the stock structure in normal environmental conditions. Changes in upper ocean structure and production cycles by the decadal scale climate changes lead changes in stock structure and recruitment, resulting in the fluctuation of saury abundance. Hypothesized mechanism of the effects of climate changes on stock structure and abundance is illustrated on the basis of changes in thermal regime and production cycle.

To provide evidence that the changes in oceanic environmental conditions are useful indices for predicting stock structure and distribution of the Pacific saury (Cololabis saira), the body length compositions and catch per unit fishing effort were examined in relation to the sea surface temperature(SST) anomalies in the Tsushima Warm Current(TWC) region. The size of the fish became larger(smaller) than the average in the same size category during the season of higher SST(lower SST) as opposed to the normal SST. The year-to-year changes in body size caused by the changes in the environmental conditions led the stock to be homogeneous during the period of high stock level from the late 1950s to early 1970s and in the 1990s. The changes in body size manifested by higher(lower) occurrence rates of larger (smaller) sized groups in relation to temperature anomalies suggest that the changes in the environmental conditions affect the distribution and the structure of the stock in the TWC region. Therefore, if the SST anomaly derived from satellite data is large enough in the early spring months(Mar. or Apr.), it is possible to predict whether or not sea temperature will be favorable for large sized groups of saury at normal or slightly earlier time of commencement of the fishery in spring(Apr.～June).