정면규칙파중에서 Bow-flare부 충격은 선저충격에 비해서 작용 시간이 길고, 선체 수직운동진폭이 큰 상태이거나, 파고가 큰 입사파가 적용되는 경우에 선체에 작용하는 충격력은 상당히 크며, 파고가 높아지면, 발생하는 모우멘트도 증가한다. 2. Bow-flare부가 큰 선형의 경우에는 선저노출이 일어나지 않더라도 부가질량의 급격한 증가에 따라 상당히 큰 충격력이 작용한다. 3. Deckwetness, 불규칙파중에서의 응답해석, 상대변위를 구할 때 Dynamic Swell-up의 양을 고려한 계산 등의 검토가 요망된다.

Purpose - This paper empirically investigates the role of volatility in the China’s Renminbi (RMB) exchange rate plays on the Sino-Korea trade based on the analysis of auto industry. Due to the increasing proportion of China’s share in the world trade, RMB exchange rate is getting attention worldwide. Due to the close Sino-Korea trade relationships and the special position that auto industry plays in a country’s economy, this paper examines the causal relationship between RMB exchange rate volatility and Sino-Korea trade in this sector. Design/Methodology - Econometric methods including Johansen test of Co-integration, Granger causality analysis and multiple regression analysis are employed to explore the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on Sino-Korea bilateral trade flow using time series data of from 2001 to 2017. Findings – The outcome shows the real exchange rate changes of RMB have a limited effect on the improvement of Sino-Korea trade. The result indicates that there is a steady long-term relationship between bilateral real exchange rate of RMB and Sino-Korea trade. However, since the elasticity of exchange rate is too small, the change of exchange rate has a limited influence on Sino-Korea trade. In a short-run there is no lag on Sino-Korea trade processed by the real exchange rate. Originality/value - Neither theoretical studies nor argument analysis have reached a common conclusion on this point in the extant research. Even for the same country, the difference of industry, data and model they selected could result in the different results. Thus, this study is re-assessing the RMB’s exchange rate changes and Sino-Korea trade relationship by using the most recent and industry-level trade data. To examine the relationship this paper focuses on auto industry, the representative of the manufacturing industry in both countries.

This study aims to investigate the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the stock markets of sixteen countries. Pooled OLS regression, conventional t-test and Mann-Whitney test are used to estimate the results of the study. We construct a weekly panel data of COVID-19 new cases and stock returns. Pooled OLS estimation result shows that the growth rate of weekly new cases of COVID-19 negatively predicts the return in stock market. Next, the returns on leading stock indices of these countries during the COVID-19 outbreak period are compared with returns during the non-COVID period. We use a t-test and Mann-Whitney test to compare the returns. The results reveal that investors in these countries do not react to the media news of COVID-19 at the early stage of the pandemic. However, once the human-to-human transmissibility had been confirmed, all of the stock market indices negatively reacted to the news in the short- and long-event window. Interestingly, we noticed that the Shanghai Composite Index, which was severely affected during the short-event window, bounced back during the long-event window. This indicates that the Chinese government’s drastic measures to contain the spread of the pandemic regained the confidence of investors in the Shanghai Stock Market.

The study investigates the impact of globalization on coal consumption in Vietnam. This study employs an autoregressed distributed lag approach on time series data for the period of 1990 to 2017. The study tests the stationary, cointegration of time series data and utilizes autoregressed distributed lag modeling technique to determine the short-run and long-run relationship among coal consumption, globalization, income, population, and CO2 emissions. The results show that globalization increases coal consumption in Vietnam in the long run. The results also show that rapid economic growth promotes more coal consumption in the short run as well as in the long run. Moreover, higher population reduces coal consumption, and CO2 emissions decrease coal consumption both in the short run and the long run. The findings of the study suggest that globalization increases coal consumption in Vietnam in the long run. This result suggests that the increase in globalization level in Vietnam increases coal consumption. An interesting finding is that higher population reduces coal consumption, and population is an important factor towards the lessening in coal consumption. The findings confirm that environmental pollution decreases coal consumption in the short run and the long run. This implies that coal consumption may be green consumption in Vietnam.

The Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), first identified in China in December 2019, has widely spread worldwide and is an ongoing pandemic. It is expected that the ripple effect of COVID-19 on the global economy including the agricultural sector will increase substantially if not properly controlled shortly. This study examines the potential impact of COVID-19 on the Korean beef cattle sector and farm labor demand for Korean beef cattle using a dynamic partial equilibrium model. The agricultural production value and farm labor demand for Korean beef cattle in the scenario assuming pessimistic GDP growth rate (-1.2% in 2020) with no direct supply shocks fell by up to 4.00% and 0.67%, respectively, compared to the baseline which represents the future without COVID-19 outbreak. On the other hand, the agricultural production value and farm labor demand for Korean beef cattle in the scenario assuming both pessimistic GDP growth rate and supply shocks (-12.7% beef imports and + 2.4% feed cost in 2020) increased by up to 12.08% and 1.99%, respectively, compared to the baseline.

The study aims to examine the effects of inward every presence of foreign investment, import, and real exchange rate shocks on export performance in Vietnam. This study employs a time-series sample dataset in the period of 1990 – 2018. All data are collected from the General Statistics Office of Ministry of Planning and Investment in Vietnam, World Development Indicator and Ministry of Finance, State Bank of Vietnam. This study employs the Augmented Dickey–Fuller test and the vector error correction model with the analysis of cointegration. The results demonstrate that a higher value of import significantly accelerates export performance in the short run, but insignificantly generates in the long run. When the volume of registered foreign investment goes up, the export performance will predominantly decrease in the both short run and long run. Historically, countries worldwide are more likely to devaluate their currencies in order to support export performance. According to the study, the exchange rate volatility has an effect on the external trade in the long run but no effect in the short run. Finally, Vietnam’s export performance converges on its long-run equilibrium by roughly 6.3% with the speed adjustment via a combination of import, every presence of foreign investment, and real exchange rate fluctuations.

Purpose: Agriculture, which is heavily influenced by climate conditions, is one of the industries most affected by climate change. In this respect, various studies on the impact of climate change on the agricultural market have been conducted. Since climate change is a long-term phenomenon for more than a decade, long-term projections of agricultural prices as well as climate variables are needed to properly analyze the impact of climate change on the agricultural market. However, these long-term price projections are often major constraints on studies of climate changes. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impacts of climate changes on the Korean onion market using ex-post analysis approach in order to avoid the difficulties of long-term price projections. Research design, data and methodology: This study develops an annual dynamic partial equilibrium model of Korean onion market. The behavioral equations of the model were estimated by OLS based on the annual data from 1988 to 2018. The modelling system is first simulated to have actual onion market conditions from 2014 to 2018 as a baseline and then compared it to the scenario assuming the climatic conditions under RCP8.5 over the same period. Scenario analyses were simulated by both comparative static and dynamic approach to evaluate the differences between the two approaches. Results: According to the empirical results, if the climate conditions under RCP8.5 were applied from 2014 to 2018, the yield of onion would increase by about 4%, and the price of onion would decrease from 3.7% to 17.4%. In addition, the average price fluctuation rate over the five years under RCP8.5 climate conditions is 56%, which is more volatile than 46% under actual climate conditions. Empirical results also show that the price decreases have been alleviated in dynamic model compared with comparative static model. Conclusions: Empirical results show that climate change is expected to increase onion yields and reduce onion prices. Therefore, the appropriate countermeasures against climate change in Korean onion market should be found in the stabilization of supply and demand for price stabilization rather than technical aspects such as the development of new varieties to increase productivity.

Korea-US FTA amendment became effective January 1, 2019 through several trade negotiations between the two countries. These amendments did not include changes in the agricultural sector. However, given the policy direction of the Trump administration, it is difficult to be certain that the existing Korea-US FTA on the agricultural sector will remain unchanged. This study examines the potential impact of changes in the US beef import tariff rates under the Korea-US FTA, which is progressively eliminated until 2026 using a dynamic partial equilibrium model. The modelling system is simulated with 100% decreases of tariff rates over 2020~2026 period and then compared to the baseline which is developed based on the current Korea–US FTA tariff rates. According to the scenario analyses results, 100% decreases of US beef tariff rate lowered Korean beef cattle production value up to 4.23%. Looking at this change in terms of absolute value rather than percentage, the total production value over 2020~2026 is expected to decrease by 815 billion won compared to Baseline. This reduction in production value in dynamic analysis is 67 billion won higher than the comparative static analysis.

With the recent increase in the volume of liquid cargo transportation, there is a need for STS( Ship To Ship) globally. In the case of the STS mooring, the safety assessment should be conducted according to other criteria because mooring is different from the general mooring at the quay, but there is no separate standard in Korea. Thus in this study, STS mooring simulation and sensitivity analysis using OPTIMOOR program, the numerical analysis program, was conducted to identify the characteristics of the STS mooring. The target sea modeled the Yeosu port anchorage in Korea and the target ship was selected as the case of VLCC (Very Large Crude Oil Carrier)-VLCC. Through the numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis, the characteristics of STS mooring were identified. Also based on these results, we focused on establishing the standard for STS mooring safety assessment. Numerical simulation results show that the STS mooring safety can be changed according to a ship's cargo loading condition, pre-tension of mooring line, sea depth, encounter angle with the weather, and the weather condition. Additionally, the risk matrix is prepared to establish the safe external force range in the corresponding sea area. This result can be used to understand the mooring characteristics of STS and contribute to the revision of mooring safety assessment criteria.

본 연구에서는 충격 및 폭발하중에 대한 콘크리트 구조물의 파괴 및 구조거동을 정확히 예측할 수 있는 콘크리트 재료모델인 최신 Microplane model을 개발하고, 콘크리트의 분쇄효과를 도입한 재료모델을 기존 상용 hydrocode에 탑재한 정밀 해석기법을 개발하고, 콘크리트 슬래브의 충돌해석을 수행하고, 그 우수성을 검증하였다.

모더니즘과 포스트모더니즘 양식의 영향 아래 많은 예술 작품들이 무용 안에서 다양한 예술 매체의 통합을 추구하기 시작했고, 새로운 현대무용 작품들을 만들기 시작했다. 이 연구는 많은 무용가들의 작품을 분석하여 현대무용의 멀티미디어 통합에 대한 연구에 초점을 맞추었다. 보다 구체적으로는 베이징무용쌍주(北京舞蹈双周)의 현대무용 작품들에 대한 조사를 통해 현대무용에서 미디어의 적용과 특성을 알아내는 것을 목표로 하였다. 연구결과 현대무용이 ‘반무용’ 경향의 개념을 일반화하여 미디어의 다원적 표현을 추구한다는 것을 발견하였다.

본 연구에서는 기후변화에 따른 메콩강 유출변화 분석을 목적으로 하고 있다. HadGEM3-RA로 부터 생산된 동아시아 지역 RCP 4.5 및 8.5 시나 리오의 일 자료를 기반으로 편의보정을 통해 미래 기후변화 시나리오를 구축한 후, SWAT 모형을 이용하여 메콩강 주요지점인 Kratie(유역면적: 646,000 km2, 메콩강의 연평균 유량의 88%)에서의 유출변화 모의하고 유황분석을 수행하였다. 기후변화 분석 결과 Kratie 유역의 미래 강수량은 기준 년 연평균 강수량 대비 미래 년 기간의 연평균 강수량은 두 시나리오 모두 증가하는 것으로 분석되었으며 월별 강수량 변화 분석을 통해 6 월∼11월에 강수량의 증가가 비교적 크게 나타나며 특히 RCP 8.5 시나리오에서 강수량의 변동 폭 및 증가량이 크게 나타남을 확인하였다. 시나리 오별 월평균 최대 및 최소기온의 변화는 두 시나리오 모두 미래 기온의 상승을 전망하고 있으며 특히 RCP 8.5 시나리오의 온도증가 폭이 크게 나타 나는 것을 확인 하였다. 또한 하천유황변화 분석결과 유역의 유량변동성이 더욱 커질 것으로 분석되었으며 저수계수 값이 52∼57% 감소하고 갈 수계수 값이 67∼74% 감소하는 것으로 나타나 하천의 갈수상황이 지속되어 미래에 가뭄이 보다 심화될 것으로 분석되었다.

기존 기후변화 영향평가에서 발생하는 불확실성에 대한 연구들은 전체과정에서 총 불확실성과 그 전파에 대한 것보다 각 단계별 불확실성에 초점을 맞추어 연구가 진행되었다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 first-order Taylor series expansion에 기반하여 전망의 분산을 이용하는 Uncertainty Delta Method (UDM)를 제안하였으며, 이 방법은 각 단계별 불확실성 정량화와 증감정도, 단계별 불확실성 비율, 총 불확실성의 전파 과정 제시가 가능 하다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화 영향평가 과정의 단계별 불확실성 정량화와 전파과정 분석을 위해 미래 2030년부터 2059년까지를 대상으로 2개 배출 시나리오, 3개 GCM, 2개 상세화기법, 2개 수문모형을 사용하였다. 결과를 분석하면, UDM을 이용한 총 불확실성은 5.45(배출시나리오: 4.45, 상세화기법: 0.45, 상세화기법: 0.27, 수문모형: 0.28)이며, 배출 시나리오의 불확실성(4.45)이 가장 크게 나타났다. 불확실성은 각 단계를 거칠수록 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 어떠한 배출시나리오를 선정하느냐에 따라 미래 수자원전망이 매우 달라질 수 있음을 의미한다. 다음으로 Hawkins and Sutton (2009)가 제안한 Fractional Uncertainty Method (FUM)을 이용한 기후변화 영향평가 불확실성 분석에서 가장 불확 실성이 큰 요인은 배출 시나리오(FUM 불확실성: 0.52)이며, 이 결과는 UDM 결과와 동일하게 나타났다. 따라서 이 연구에서 제안한 UDM은 기후 변화 영향평가에서의 불확실성 이해와 적합한 분석 및 미래 기후변화 대비 보다 나은 수자원 전망이 가능하도록 기여할 것으로 판단된다.

본 연구의 목적은 금강유역(9,645.5 km2)을 대상으로 극한 기후변화 사상에 따른 수문 및 유황의 변동을 평가하는 것이다. 본 연구에서는 객관적인 극한 기후변화 사상을 평가하기 위해 강우관련 극한지수(STARDEX)를 적용하고, GCM 10개의 RCP 8.5 기후변화 시나리오에 대해 4개의 평 가기간별(Historical: 1975~2005, 2020s: 2011~2040, 2050s: 2041~2070, 2080s: 2071~2100)로 분석하였다. 분석 결과 5개의 습윤 (CESM1-BGC, HadGEM2-ES), 중간(MPI-ESM-MR) 건조(INM-CM4, FGOALS-s2) 극한 기후변화 사상 시나리오를 선정하여 SWAT 모형에 적용하였다. 2080s 기간에서 중간시나리오 대비 2080s의 증발산은 -3.2~+3.1 mm로 변화하였고, 2080s의 총 유출량은 +5.5~+128.4 m3/s 변화하였다. 건조한 시나리오의 경우 2020s 중간시나리오대비 큰 변화를 보였다. 건조한 시나리오에서의 2020s의 증발산량은 -16.8~-13.3 mm 의 변화를 보였고, 총 유출량은 -264.0~132.3 m3/s의 변화를 보였다. 유황 변동의 경우, 2080s 기간의 습윤한 시나리오에서 CFR은 +4.2~+10.5, 2020s 기간의 건조한 시나리오에서는 +1.7~2.6으로 변화 하였다. 극한 기후변화 시나리오를 적용한 금강유역의 수문인자의 변화에 따라 유황분 석을 실시한 결과, INM-CM4는 극한 건조상태를 나타내기에 적절한 시나리오로 나타났고 FGOALS-s2는 유황변동이 큰 가뭄 상태 분석에 적절한 시나리오로 나타났다. HadGEM2-ES는 유황변동이 작게 나타났기 때문에 최대유량 분석 시 활용 가능한 시나리오로 평가되었고, CESM1-BGC 의 경우 유황변동이 큰 것으로 나타나 극한 홍수 분석 시 적용할 수 있는 시나리오로 평가되었다.

In the globalization and free trade era, the current account deficit problem is a common phenomenon experienced by most countries, both developing and developed countries. Also with managed floating regime of exchange rate, it becomes very important to analyze the dynamics of current account balance which determine the trade. The deficit condition has lasted for four years in Indonesia, as well the deficit value above the value of the surplus that has been experienced during the period 2005-2011. This study is firstly aim to examine the condition of the deficit which happens in the export and import, manufactured goods and oil and gas, whether related to the transaction of goods and services. We try to build a predicted model which near the actual. Then, the focuses examines an exchange rate volatility impact on current account deficit. The model used in this research is a simultaneous model of Indonesia current account deficit from 2005 to 2014. The simulation result indicated that depreciation increase surplus to current account deficit. The decrease of export manufactured goods (non oil and gas) higher than the increase of import. For the oil and gas sector, depreciation of the rupiah against the US dollar results in an increased burden of higher oil and gas imports due to import transactions.

This paper has developed a Derailment Containment Provision(DCP) between rails to prevent derailed accident of the train. And developed DCP under impact loading was analytically evaluated using LS-Dyna. This paper was simulated using Mat_72R3 and Mat_CSCM for concrete material. To modify the developed DCP, this paper was suggested suitable and reasonable analytical concrete material model.

Climate change has caused localized torrential rainfalls and typhoons to occur more frequently, increasing damages to both life and property. In particular, debris flows have brought damages not only in mountainous areas but also in urban centers. Many studies have been carried out with the rising concern on debris flows. These studies applied different debris flow models and conduct analyses on behaviors of debris flow and on forecasting. Given this, however, the subject of the impact force of debris flows should also be taken into consideration. Thus, this study applied RAMMS and FLO-2D, two models for the numerical analysis of debris flows used to analyze impact force. Here, the selected study areas are Umyeonsan Mountain in Seoul and Majeoksan Mountain in Chuncheon, where damages on debris flows were caused by the localized heavy rains in 2011. To identify a debris flow–triggering rainfall, we used and applied rainfalls calculated at different frequencies (30-year, 50-year, 100-year, 200-year). This study calculated and compared impact forces produced by the two models at any point in the study areas. Identifying impact forces based on the comparison of the two models will be useful in selecting materials and equipment appropriate when installing facilities in mountainous regions.

국제연합식량농업기구(FAO)는 2050년, 전 세계 인구 수가 약 90억에 이를 것으로 예측하였다. 이와 같은 인구 증가는 여러 식량 및 환경 문제들을 야기할 수 있다. 또한 식량 및 에너지원 생산과정에서 자연계에 과잉으로 배출되는 질소, 인은 토양 산성화 및 부영양화 등의 환경문제를 유발할 수 있다. 이에 대한 해결책으로 FAO에서는 ‘곤충’을 자원(식･약품, 사료, 비료 등)으로 활용하는 것을 제시하였다. 현재 국내 연구는 곤충의 이용가능성 여부 및 활용기술개발 위주의 연구에 치중되어있어 곤충활용에 따른 환경성 연구는 전무한 실정이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 국내에서 식용곤충으로 인정받은 곤충 6종 중 갈색거저리와 벼메뚜기를 선정하여 곤충의 활용방안에 따른 환경성 평가를 진행하였다. 갈색거저리는 최근 식량자원으로써 각광받고 있는 종이며 번데기까지 사용할 수 있는 완전변태 곤충이다. 벼메뚜기는 예로부터 식품으로 이용된 친숙한 종이며 대표적인 불완전변태 곤충이다. 본 연구의 목적은 곤충 분류(번데기의 유무)에 따른 활용방안의 환경성을 비교･평가하고 이를 기존 단백질원과 비교하는 것이다. 갈색거저리와 벼메뚜기의 환경성 평가는 질소, 인 흐름분석 및 전과정평가를 사용하였다. 이는 인간이 곤충을 단백질원으로 섭취하였을 경우와 곤충 사료로 키운 가축을 섭취하였을 경우로 나누어 분석하였다. 이를 토대로 물질흐름의 각 단계를 비료, 작물, 곤충, 가축, 사람으로 나누어 유입, 유출되는 질소와 인의 양을 산정하고 이에 따른 질소, 인 이용효율을 산정하였다. 또한 갈색거저리와 벼메뚜기 사육 시 발생하는 온실가스 량을 기존의 단백질원 생산과 비교 하였다.연구 결과 갈색거저리가 기존 단백질원인 한우와 벼메뚜기보다 질소, 인이용효율이 높았으며 온실가스 발생량이 적었다. 또한 갈색거저리는 번데기까지 사료로써 이용이 가능하기 때문에 활용범위가 넓을 것이라 생각한다.

This study suggests a general process of analyzing the mooring and cargo handling limit waves, which is an incident to the new energy port under long wave agitation. To reduce damages of ships and harbor structures due to strong wave responses, it is necessary to predict the change of wave field in the mooring berth to make the proper decision by dock master. The berthing area at a new LNG port in the east coast of Korea in this study is frequently affected by oscillations from waves of 8.5~13s periods in the wintertime. The long period waves give difficulties on port operation by lowering the annual berthing ratio. It needs to find the event waves from the real time offshore wave records, which cause over the mooring limits. For that purpose, the wave records from field measurement and offshore wave buoy were analyzed. From numerical simulation, the response characteristics of long period waves in the berthing area were deduced with or without breakwater expansion plan, analyzing the offshore field wave data collected for two years. Some event wave cases caused over the cargo handling and mooring limits as per the standard Korean port design guideline, and those were used for the decision of port operation by dock master, comparing with the real time offshore wave observations.

Recently IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change, 2007) pointed out that global warming is a certain ongoing process on the earth, due to which water resources management is becoming one of the most difficult tasks with the frequent occurrences of extreme floods and droughts. In this study we made runoff predictions for several control points in the Geum River by using the watershed runoff model, SSARR (Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation Model), with daily RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for 100 year from 1st Jan 2006 to 31st Dec 2100 at the resolution of 1 km given by Climate Change Information Center. As a result of, the Geum River Basin is predicted to be a constant flow increases, and it showed a variation in the water circulation system. Thus, it was found that the different seasonality occurred.