This paper is intended to develop a Bayesian decision model for the repair of deteriorating system. A non-homogeneous Poisson process with a power law failure intensity function is used to describe the behavior of the deteriorating repairable system. The decision on whether to have minimal repair or imperfect repair should be made on the occurrence of a failure. However, it is difficult to make a reasonable decision due to many uncertainties intrinsic in repair actions. In this paper, prior distributions are used in order to analyze the uncertainties embedded in the decision alternatives. Especially, a prior distribution for imperfect repair with probabilistic reduction in the failure intensity is proposed. In addition, mathematical expressions to calculate the expected prior loss of each repair alternative are proposed.

In this paper we extend the classical decision model under uncertainty to a more general case. We propose an expected utility-uncertainty model and we can make a decision by trading off between a measure of uncertainty and a measure of expected value. As a risk analysis model, the expected utility-uncertainty model can be seen to be reasonable and flexible for states of nature or individuals' preferences. Moreover, the model can explain some decision paradoxes.

Supply Chain Management(SCM) system is a critical investment that can affect future competitiveness and performance of a company. Selection of a right SCM system is one of the critical issues. This paper provides the characteristic factors of SCM system selection and the SCM system evaluation and selection model based on Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP). The proposed model can systematically construct the objectives of SCM system selection to support the business goals. A empirical example demonstrates the feasibility of the proposed model and the model can help a company to make better decision-making in selecting SCM system.

In order to implement Artificial Intelligence, various technologies have been widely used. Artificial Intelligence are applied for many industrial products and machine tools are the center of manufacturing devices in intelligent manufacturing devices. The purpose of this paper is to present the design of Decision Support Agent that is applicable to machine tools. This system is that decision whether to act in accordance with machine status is support system. It communicates with other active agents such as sensory and dialogue agent. The proposed design of decision support agent facilitates the effective operation and control of machine tools and provides a systematic way to integrate the expert's knowledge that will implement Intelligent Machine Tools.

In this paper we extend the classical decision model under uncertainty to a more general case. We propose an expected utility-uncertainty model and we can make a decision by trading off between a measure of uncertainty and a measure of expected value. As a risk analysis model, the expected utility-uncertainty model can be seen to be reasonable and flexible for states of nature or individuals' preferences. Moreover, the model can explain some decision paradoxes.

This paper is intended to develop a Bayesian decision model for the repair of deteriorating system. A non-homogeneous Poisson process with a power law failure intensity function is used to describe the behavior of the deteriorating repairable system. The decision on whether to have minimal repair or imperfect repair should be made on the occurrence of a failure. However, it is difficult to make a reasonable decision due to many uncertainties intrinsic in repair actions. In this paper, prior distributions are used in order to analyze the uncertainties embedded in the decision alternatives. Especially, a prior distribution for imperfect repair with probabilistic reduction in the failure intensity is proposed. In addition, mathematical expressions to calculate the expected prior loss of each repair alternative are proposed.

As quality becomes a primary leading factor of organizational success, various management strategies have been In-troduced to Improve quality competitiveness Quality competitiveness, however, is difficult to measure and numerous organ-izations are struggl

This study aims to examine the usefulness on the Evaluation Process for the Feasibility & Priority of A Certain Public Projects. and the Methodology used AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) which used pairwise comparisons of the alternatives and criteria for solving discrete alternative multicriteria decision problems. In this paper, we present a similar phenomenon, rank reversal problem, when we apply the AHP to group decision making process. The problem is identified by an example problem in that the previous rank order of Public Projects choices. we also present three different methods to prevent the undesirable characteristic of the original AHP in appling to Decision Making Process.

Finding an optimal solution in MADM(Multi-Attribute Decision-Making) problems is difficult, when the number of alternatives, or that of attributes is relatively large. Most of the existing mathematical approaches arrive at a final solution on the basis of many unrealistic assumptions, without reflecting the decision-maker's preference structure exactly. In this paper we suggest a model that helps us find a group consensus without assessing these parameters in specific cardinal values. Therefore, This research provides a comprehensive Decision Making of the theory and methods applicable to the analysis of decisions that involve risk and multiple criteria attributes. after, The emphasis of the procedure will be on developments from the fields of decisions analysis and utility theory of Taguchi Method. This theoretical development will be illustrated through the discussion of several real-world application and a case study. When the multiple number of decision makers are involved in the decision making procedure, the problem of uncertainties invariably occurs, because of the different views between them. In this paper, New decision making model using Taguchi Method is applied to effectively model the multi-attribute-decision making(MADM) procedure in the uncertainties dominated two area(quantitative and qualitative factors), Quantitative factors evaluation is used Loss Function of Taguchi, qualitative factors evaluation is used S₩N ratio by each specialist. thus it can be used for aiding of preferable alternative. as a result, We will be proved efficiency about New decision making model of applied Taguchi Method with Analytical presentation of all the expecting outcomes when a specific strategy or an alternative plan is selected under expecting future environment.

This paper aims to construct an effective decision making model on selection of product design in product development using fuzzy AHP technique. It is expected that this paper contributes to enhancement of company's market competitiveness by shortening the lead time to develop a new product and minimize initial investment. The proposed model using fuzzy AHP enables quick decision making by integrating and analyzing all customer requirements related to a product. In addition, it can deal with vagueness and uncertainty of decision making process using fuzzy set theory. Decision making processes for evaluating the best selection of product design are also constructed to describe the exact concept of development. A tennis racket is shown as an example. The proposed model is expected to be applied in various fields of managerial decision making processes as well as of product development process.

Finding an optimal solution in MADN[(Multi-Attribute Decision-Making) problems is difficult, when the number of alternatives, or that of attributes is relatively large Most of the existing mathematical approaches arrive at a final solution on the basis of many unrealistic assumptions, without reflecting the decision-maker's preference structure exactly. In this paper we suggest a model that helps us find a group consensus without assessing these parameters in specific cardinal values. Therefore, This research provides a comprehensive Decision Making of the theory and methods applicable to the analysis of decisions that involve risk and multiple criteria attributes. after, The emphasis of the procedure will be on developments from the fields of decisions analysis and utility theory of Taguchi Method. This theoretical development will be illustrated through the discussion of several real-world application and a case study. When the multiple number of decision makers are involved in the decision making procedure, the problem of uncertainties invariably occurs, because of the different views between them. In this paper, New decision making model using Taguchi Method is applied to effectively model the multi-attribute-decision making(MADM) procedure in the uncertainties dominated two area(quantitative and qualitative factors), Quantitative factors evaluation is used Loss Function of Taguchi, qualitative factors evaluation is used 50 ratio by each specialist. thus it can be used for aiding of preferable alternative. as a result, We will be proved efficiency about New decision making model of applied Taguchi Method with Analytical presentation of all the expecting outcomes when a specific strategy or an alternative plan is selected under expecting future environment.

The basis of cyber trading has been sufficiently developed with innovative advancement of Internet Technology and the tendency of stock market investment has changed from long-term investment, which estimates the value of enterprises, to short-term investment, which focuses on getting short-term stock trading margin. Hence, this research shows a Short-term Stock Price Forecasting System on Learning Agent System using DTA(Decision Tree Algorithm) ; it collects real-time information of interest and favorite issues using Agent Technology through the Internet, and forms a decision tree, and creates a Rule-Base Database. Through this procedure the Short-term Stock Price Forecasting System provides customers with the prediction of the fluctuation of stock prices for each issue in near future and a point of sales and purchases. A Human being has the limitation of analytic ability and so through taking a look into and analyzing the fluctuation of stock prices, the Agent enables man to trace out the external factors of fluctuation of stock market on real-time. Therefore, we can check out the ups and downs of several issues at the same time and figure out the relationship and interrelation among many issues using the Agent. The SPFA (Stock Price Forecasting System) has such basic four phases as Data Collection, Data Processing, Learning, and Forecasting and Feedback.

Decision analysis has becomes an important technique for decision making in the face of uncertainty. It is characterized by enumerating all the available courses of action, identifying the payoffs for all possible outcomes, and quantifying the subjective probabilities for the all possible random events. When the data are available, decision analysis becomes a powerful tool for determining an optimal course of action. We study the multi-attribute decision making in a compensatory models. In this paper, we use the entropy methods in weights calculating. For the purpose of making optimal decision, the data of five different car models are used. For computing, we used Visual Numerica Version 1.0 software package.

철근콘크리트 구조물의 보수ㆍ보강 등의 유지관리를 위해서는 내구성과 내하성을 동시에 고려한 건전성평가의 의사결정기준이 절실히 요구된다. 본 논문은 CART-ANFIS을 사용하는 철근콘크리트 구조물에 대하여 효율적인 모델을 나타내었다. 철근콘크리트 구조물의 손상과 진단 등에 활용되어온 분류형 전문가시스템의 일종인 퍼지이론을 이용한 결정목 구조와 기존의 인공신경망을 이용한 결정목 구조의 건전성평가를 비교 분석한다. 손상된 철근콘크리트의 내구성 회복을 위한 보강설계 이론과 내하력 증가를 위한 보장설계 이론을 정립시켜 손상검출의 산정식을 유도하였다. 본 연구의 건전성 평가시스템 모델을 이용함으로서 보다 효율적인 철근콘크리트 유지관리 뿐만 아니라 생애주기비용 예측을 수행 할 수 있다.

Due to the convenience of use and rapid access to their information to find, many Internet users utilize the search engines or portal sites to find their information and web sites. However, many researches related with web site evaluation pointed out that many factors have to be considered to increase the usefulness of the site and the degree of user's preference about the site. In this research, based on the previous research, preference factors are derived to evaluate the portal sites. And then, five portal sites are evaluated by the questionnaire. CHAID, a decision tree technique, is used to analyze the results of survey and the relationships of preference factors. This research can be an indicator when we analyze the preference factors of portal site and other kinds of web sites using decision tree.

Classification is an important area in a data mining. There are various ways in classification methodologies : the decision tree and the neural network, etc. Recently, Rough set theory has been presented as a method for classification. Rough set theory is a new approach in decision making in the presence of uncertainty and vagueness. In the process of constructing the tree, appropriate attributes have to be selected as nodes of the tree. In this paper, we present a new approach to selection of attributes for the construction of decision tree using the Rough set theory. The suggested method makes more simple classification rules in the decision tree and reduces the volume of the data to be treated.

Expectation and interest about e-CRM are rising for more efficient customer management in on-line including electronic commerce. The decision-making tree can be used usefully as the data mining technology for e-CRM. In this paper, the representative decision making techniques, CART, C4.5, CHAID analyzed the differences in personalization point of view with actuality customer data through an experiment. With these analysis data, it is proposed a new decision-making tree system that has big advantage in personalization techniques. Through new system, it can get following advantage. First, it can form superior model more qualitatively in personalization by adding individual's weight value. Second it can supply information personalized more to customer. Third, it can have high position about customer's loyalty than other site of similar types of business. Fourth, it can reduce expense that cost marketing and decision-making. Fifth, it becomes possible that know that customer through smooth communication with customer who use personalized service wants and make from goods or service's quality to more worth thing.