PURPOSES: The objective of this paper is to select the confidential intervals by utilizing the second moment reliability index(Hasofer and Lind; 1974) related to the number of load applications to failure which explains the fatigue failure and rut depth that it indicates the permanent deformation. By using Finite Element Method (FEM) Program, we can easily confirm the rut depth and number of load repetitions without Pavement Design Procedures for generally designing pavement depths. METHODS : In this study, the predictive models for the rut depth and the number of load repetitions to fatigue failure were used for determining the second moment reliability index ( ). From the case study results using KICTPAVE, the results of the rut depth and the number of load repetitions to fatigue failure were deducted by calculating the empirical predictive equations. Also, the confidential intervals for rut depth and number of load repetitions were selected from the results of the predictive models. To determine the second moment reliability index, the spreadsheet method using Excel’s Solver was used. RESULTS : From the case studies about pavement conditions, the results of stress, displacement and strain were different with depth conditions of layers and layer properties. In the clay soil conditions, the values of strain and stresses in the directly loaded sections are relatively greater than other conditions. It indicates that the second moment reliability index is small and confidential intervals for rut depth and the number of load applications are narrow when we apply the clay soil conditions comparing to the applications of other soil conditions. CONCLUSIONS : According to the results of the second moment reliability index and the confidential intervals, the minimum and maximum values of reliability index indicate approximately 1.79 at Case 9 and 2.19 at Case 22. The broadest widths of confidential intervals for rut depth and the number of load repetitions are respectively occurred in Case 9 and Case 7.

아스팔트 포장에서 소성변형은 교통하중에 의해 발생하는 가장 심각한 파손중의 하나이다. 현재 개발중인 한국형 포장 설계법은 역학적-경험적 설계법으로 다양한 포장 파손 예측모델을 필요로 한다. 이 연구는 포장설계시 아스팔트층에서 발생하는 소성 변형량을 예측할 수 있는 모델을 개발하여 포장의 공용성을 규명하고자 하였다. 본 논문은 아스팔트 혼합물의 소성변형에 영향을 미치는 인자를 규명하고, 소성변형 예측 모델을 개발하고자 한다. 이를 위하여 3단계 온도, 공극률을 조합한 19mm 밀입도 혼합물에 대하여 삼축압축 반복재하시험을 수행하였다. 그 결과 혼합물의 온도와 공극률이 소성변형 예측 모델 계수에 영향을 미치는 것으로 확인되었다. 이에 근거하여 19mm밀입도 아스팔트 혼합물에 대한 소성변형 예측식을 다중 회귀분석을 통하여 개발하였으며, 개발된 모델을 검증하였다.