A wire rod, a material for multistage cold forging, is subjected to spheroidization and low annealing heat treatment to secure formability, and a phosphate coating treatment on the material surface to secure lubricity. The film layer produced by the phosphate treatment process is involved in adhesion to the material surface, adhesion to the forging die surface, and lubricity. This results in the increase or decrease of the forming load and the increase or decrease of the die life in the cold forging process. In particular, as the cold forging process progresses, the phosphate film is damaged and the original performance is deteriorated, so there is a high possibility of process defects. In case of excessive damage, the film is completely lost and die soldering occurs. Therefore, in this study, quantitative criteria for phosphate film damage are presented and the effect on the cold forging process is analyzed based on this to improve process analysis prediction accuracy. Therefore, in this study, quantitative criteria for phosphate film damage are presented, and based on this, the friction coefficient in the multi-stage cold forging process is to be derived.