For this study, WRF numerical modeling was performed, using RDAPS information for input data on typhoons affecting the Korean peninsula to produce wind data of 700hPa. RAM numerical modeling was also used to calculate 3-second gusts as the extreme wind speed. After comparing wind speeds at an altitude of 10 m to evaluate the feasibility of WRF numerical modeling, modeled values were found to be similar with measured ones, reflecting change tendencies well. Therefore, the WRF numerical modeling results were verified. As a result of comparing and analyzing these wind speeds, as calculated through RAM numerical modeling, to evaluate applicability for disaster preparedness, change tendencies were observed to be similar between modeled and measured values. In particular, modeled values were slightly higher than measured ones, indicating applicability for the prevention of possible damage due to gales. Our analysis of 3-second gusts during the study period showed a high distribution of 3-second gusts in the southeast region of the Korean peninsula from 2002-2006. The frequency of 3-second gusts increased in the central north region of Korea as time progressed. Our analysis on the characteristics of 3-second gusts during years characterized by El Niño or La Nina showed greater strength during hurricanes that affected the Korean peninsula in El Niño years.

This study used a quantile regression model and a non-homogeneous regression model to calibrate probabilistic forecasts of wind speed. These techniques were applied to the forecasts of wind speed over Pyeongchang area using 51-member European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). Reliability analysis was carried out by using rank histogram to identify the statistical consistency of ensemble forecasts and corresponding observations. The performances were evaluated by rank histogram, mean absolute error, root mean square error and continuous ranked probability score. The results showed that the forecasts of quantile regression and non-homogeneous regression models performed better than the raw ensemble forecasts. However, the differences of prediction skills between quantile regression and nonhomogeneous regression models were insignificant.

일상적으로 우리가 매일 경험하는 눈, 비, 바람, 기온과 같은 현상을 날씨라고 하며, 일정한 지역에서 장기간에 걸쳐 나타나는 대기 현상의 평균적인 상태를 기후라고 한다. 또한 기후가 평균적 상태에 비해 유의미하게 변동하는 것을 기후변화라고 한다. 콘크리트 구조물의 경 우 외부 극한기후환경에 노출 될 경우 다양한 문제점들이 발생할 수 있다. 이러한 문제점들 중 최근 가장 문제가 되고 있는 폭우, 폭설과 같은 극 한기후인자요소의 작용을 받아 발생 할 수 있는 동결융해에 대한 현상이다. 콘크리트의 경우 온도가 너무 낮거나 높다고 손상이 발생하는 것은 아니라 동결·융해를 반복적으로 받을 경우 심각한 내구성 저하를 나타나게 되며 실제 성능저하가 된 구조물의 경우 회복하기 힘들게 된다. 따 라서 본 연구에서는 극심한 기후변화로 발생 되는 다양한 기후인자 요소 중 풍속-일조시간의 기후변화 양생조건에 대하여 양생 후 콘크리트 동 결융해 실험을 접목시켜 상대동탄성계수를 측정하고 이를 바탕으로 성능중심평가 (Performance Based Evaluation (PBE))를 실시하고 대응책 을 마련하고자 한다.

This paper applied the ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) with truncated normal distribution, which are easy to implement postprocessing techniques, to calibrate probabilistic forecasts of wind speed that take the form of probability density functions. We also considered the alternative implementations of EMOS, which were EMOS exchangeable model and reduced EMOS model. These techniques were applied to the forecasts of wind speed over Pyeongchang area using 51 members of the Ensemble Prediction System for Global (EPSG). The performances were evaluated by rank histogram, mean absolute error, root mean square error and continuous ranked probability score. The results showed that EMOS models with truncated normal distribution performed better than the raw ensemble and ensemble mean. Especially, the reduced EMOS model exhibited better prediction skill than EMOS exchangeable model in most stations of study area.

This paper used the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) with gamma distribution that takes the form of probability density functions to calibrate probabilistic forecasts of wind speed. We considered the alternative implementation of BMA, which was BMA gamma exchangeable model. This method was applied for forecasting of wind speed over Pyeongchang area using 51 members of the Ensemble Prediction System for Global (EPSG). The performances were evaluated by rank histogram, means absolute error, root mean square error, continuous ranked probability score and skill score. The results showed that BMA gamma exchangeable models performed better in forecasting wind speed, compared to the raw ensemble and ensemble mean.

To predict annual energy production (AEP) accurately in the wind farm where located in Seongsan, Jeju Island, Equivalent wind speed (EQ) which can consider vertical wind shear well than Hub height wind speed (HB) is calculated. AEP is produced by CFD model WindSim from National wind resource map. EQ shows a tendency to be underestimated about 2.7% (0.21 m/s) than HB. The difference becomes to be large at nighttime when wind shear is large. EQ can be also affected by atmospheric stability so that is classified by wind shear exponent (). AEP is increased by 11% when atmosphere becomes to be stabilized ( > 0.2) than it is convective ( < 0.1). However, it is found that extreme wind shear ( > 0.3) is hazardous for power generation. This results represent that AEP calculated by EQ can provide improved accuracy to short-term wind power forecast and wind resource assessment.

MK-PRISM developed for wind interpolation was applied to case studies and was verified in previous studies. Thus, some tests were necessary before the model used in order to produce wind speed maps for the whole area of South Korea. In this study, the MK-PRISM was applied to producing wind speed maps of South Korea. The result showed that sharp changes occur in wind speed distribution, despite the continuous similar topographic. The primary reason for the phenomenon was that a linear regression slope between elevation and wind speed used in interpolation process was changed rapidly in some areas. This study used the landform classification data to address this problem. The improved model controlled similarly the slope of the linear regression equation in the continuous valley, slope, and ridge. Therefore, the slope of the linear regression equation does not change dramatically in the improved model. The improved model was named MK-PRISM-Wind in this study. The wind speed was similar on the ridge continuously in the wind speed distribution produced by MK-PRISM-Wind. In addition, the wind speed was more gradually changed compared to the previous model on the plains and foothills. The results mean that MK-PRISM-Wind can produce wind speed maps more reasonable than the previous model, and it can be applied to the wind speed interpolation of South Korea. High-resolution gridded wind speed map produced by MK-PRISM-Wind is expected to be utilized for various studies.

There were 35 typhoons affecting Korean Peninsula from 1999 to 2009(The average annual number of typhoon is 3.18). Among these typhoons, the number of typhoon passing through the Yellow sea, the Southern sea and the East sea were 14, 6 and 15 respectively. Wind speed on the height of 10 m can be finally estimated using the surface roughness after we calculate wind speed on the height of 300 m from the data on the surface of 700 hPa. From the wind speeds on the height of 10 m, we can understand the regional distributions of strong wind speed are very different according to the typhoon tracks. Wind speed range showing the highest frequency is 10~20 m/s(45.69%), below 10 m/s(30.72%) and 20~30 m/s(17.31%) in high order. From the analysis of the wind speed on the hight of 80 m, we can know the number of occurrence of wind speed between 50 and 60 m/s that can affect wind power generation are 104(0.57%) and those of between 60 and 70 m/s that can be considered as extreme wind speed are even 8(0.04%).

현재 전 세계적으로 자연적, 인위적 요인으로 인하여 이상기후가 나타나고 있다. 이상기후의 대표적인 것으로 슈퍼태풍, 극한폭설, 폭염과 같은 극한 기후현상이 초래된다. 1970년대 산업화 시대 이후 급격하게 지구의 온도가 상승하는 것을 알 수 있으며, 이로 인하여 발생하는 가장 큰 문제점은 지구 온난화이다. 지구 온난화에 영향을 미치는 온실가스의 종류로는 이산화탄소, 과불화탄소, 아산화질소, 메탄과 같은 다양한 종류의 화학성분이 존재하며 특히 이산화탄소가 약 90%의 비중을 차지하는 것을 알 수 있다. 콘크리트의 경우 건설재료로써 탁월한 내구성능을 지니고 있으며, 사회기반시설물 건설 재료로 70%이상 사용되고 있다. 그러나 콘크리트는 타설직후 물리·화학적으로 다양한 환경조건으로부터 성능저하 현상이 발생하기도 한다. 특히 대기중의 이산화탄소는 콘크리트 알칼리도 저하에 따른 철근을 부식시키고 내구성 저하를 초래하게 된다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 풍속, 일조시간에 관하여 양생 한 후 콘크리트의 탄산화 실험을 접목시켜 탄산화 깊이와 탄산화 속도 계수를 측정하고 이를 바탕으로 만족도 확률 곡선을 통하여 성능중심평가(Performance Based Evaluation(PBE))를 수행 할 것이다.

This study investigates the theoretical background of the interpolation methods that regards the topographical effect on the climate data, such as Co-kriging, Artificial Neural Network and MK-PRISM(Modified Korean Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model). Prior to applying the MK-PRISM to the interpolation of wind speed, this study has improved the model to be closer to the fundamental concept of the PRISM and verified it‘s validity. Since each method has individual advantages and disadvantages, there will be a need for comparative studies in order to select an interpolation method that is suitable for the topography of Korea. This study has added a weighted value that considers the existence of clusters at the known point, and has supplemented the digital elevation models and aspects distribution of multiple scales for application. In addition, this study has allowed the consideration of sharp changes between the known point and unknown point when calculating the topographic facet weighting. The supplement model was verified through the interpolation of rainfall in Jeju Island. The coefficient of determination and KGE(Kling and Gupta Efficiency) of the model displayed the results of 0.86 and 0.87, respectively for August 2010 monthly precipitation in Jeju Island, and the model was accordingly verified. This study is able to provide the necessary information to the researchers who wish to interpolate the observation data of wind speed. Furthermore, the supplement MK-PRISM becomes available to the research on the interpolation of wind speed.

본 연구에서는 지상 관측우량계로 측정한 강우량을 실제 지표면에 떨어지는 강우에 근접한 양이 되도록 보정함으로써, 유출해석을 비롯한 기타 수문해석에서 신뢰도 높은 결과를 도출하는데 목적이 있다. 지상우량계에서 관측되는 강우량에 미치는 바람의 영향을 분석하기 위하여, 표준기상관측소인 추풍령기상대에 설치된 바람막이가 있는 우량계와 기준우량계의 자료를 획득하였다. 단순선형회귀 모형과 신경망 모형을 이용하여 강우보정 모델을 구축하였으며, 감천유역의 7개 지점에 대해 지상강우를 보정하였다. VfloTM모형을 이용한 유출모의를 통해 보정된 강우의 신뢰도를 검증하였다. 단순선형회귀 모형을 사용하여 풍속구간별로 보정한 강우량은 실제 강우량보다 5%~18% 큰 강우량을 나타냈으며, 강우획득에서의 바람의 영향은 1.6~3.3m/s의 풍속구간에서 가장 큰 것을 확인하였다. 또한 풍속구간 5.5이상에서는 자료의 개수가 전체자료의 0.7%로 매우 작고, 이상치가 획득됨으로써 회귀모형의 적용성이 떨어진다고 판단하였다. 반면에 신경망 모형을 이용한 지상 관측강우의 보정에서는 전체적으로 관측 값보다 10%~20% 정도 작은 강우가 추정되었다. 통계오차분석을 실시한 결과, 획득한 강우량의 극치값이 크게 나타날수록 선형회귀 모형의 적용성이 높게 나타났으며, 전체적으로 편차가 크고 평균 강우획득량이 클수록 신경망 모형의 적용성이 높게 나타나는 것을 확인하였다. 본 연구 결과를 바탕으로 앞으로의 수문해석에 있어 지역별 강우특성에 따라 기준우량계(pit guage)를 이용한 적합한 강우 보정방법을 사용함으로써 신뢰도 높은 수문해석이 이루어질 것으로 기대한다.

본 논문은 강릉 지역에서 동일 기간에 기록된 공간 감마선량률과 강수량, 일조시간, 평균풍속 사이의 교차 상관 지수 pDCCA를 DCCA cross-correlation coefficient(DCCA p)방법으로 구하여 교차 상관성을 분석하였다. 우리는 이 연구를통해 다음의 사실을 알았다. 첫 번째, 공간 감마선량률과 강수량 사이 pDCCA는 일(4~7일), 달(30일), 계절(90일), 년(360일)에서 0.57~0.48, 0.39, 0.34, 0.26, 공간 감마선량률과 일조시간 사이 pDCCA는 일, 달, 계절, 년에서 –0.20~-0.23,-0.22, -0.17, -0.13, 공간 감마선량률과 평균풍속 사이의 pDCCA는 일, 달, 계절, 년에서 –0.10~-0.12, -0.11, -0.05, -0.05이다. 두 번째, pDCCA를 통하여 공간 감마선량률과 강수량은 교차 상관성이 있으며 공간 감마선량률과 일조시간, 평균풍속 사이에는 교차 상관성이 없다는 것을 확인하였다.

This study calculated wind speed at the height of 10 m using a disaster prediction model(Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model, FPHLM) that was developed and used in the United States. Using its distributions, a usable information of surface wind was produced for the purpose of disaster prevention when the typhoon attack. The advanced research version of the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) was used in this study, and two domains focusing on South Korea were determined through two-way nesting. A horizontal time series and vertical profile analysis were carried out to examine whether the model provided a resonable simulation, and the meteorological factors, including potential temperature, generally showed the similar distribution with observational data. We determined through comparison of observations that data taken at 700 hPa and used as input data to calculate wind speed at the height of 10 m for the actual terrain was suitable for the simulation. Using these results, the wind speed at the height of 10 m for the actual terrain was calculated and its distributions were shown. Thus, a stronger wind occurred in coastal areas compared to inland areas showing that coastal areas are more vulnerable to strong winds.

본 연구에서는 종관 규모의 기상을 예측할 수 있는 CGCM3와 RCP 데이터를 이용하여 인천, 제주, 부산 지점에 대한 미래 풍속을 예측하였다. 본 연구에 적용된 CGCM3 데이터는 IPCC 4차보고서의 A1B 시나리오 결과에 해당이 되며, 본 연구에서는 통계적 축소기법을 개발한 후 CGCM3의 종관기상 인자로부터 미래 일평균 풍속을 평가하였다. RCP 데이터는 향후 제공될 IPCC 5차보고서의 RCP 8.5 시나리오 결과에 해당이 되며, 본 연구에서는 통계적 축소기법을 적용하지 않고 10m 높이에서의 일평균 풍속을 적용하여 미래 풍속을 추정하였다. 또한 본 연구에서는 RCP 8.5 시나리오의 미래 일평균 해수면 온도를 이용하여 미래 태풍에 의한 풍속을 평가하였다. 본 연구에서 파악한 해당 지점에 대한 CGCM3와 RCP 데이터에 기초한 미래 일평균 풍속 평가 결과에 의하면 과거 기간과 비교하여 미래 일평균 풍속의 극대치는 미래 기간 동안 최대 －12.4% 낮아 질 것으로 판단된다. 이에 반해 RCP 해수면 온도를 사용한 미래 태풍에 의한 풍속의 극대치는 해수면 온도의 증가와 함께 최대 ＋17.4% 증가할 것으로 판단된다. 본 연구의 결과를 일반화하기 위하여 다양한 지점과 기후변화 시나리오에 대한 평가가 필요하며, 기후변화에 의한 풍속의 변화를 고려한 시설물의 방재대책이 수립될 필요가 있는 것으로 판단된다.

최근들어 사장교나 현수교와 같은 케이블 형식의 장대교량이 많이 건설되거나 계획중에 있다. 하지만 도로교 설계기준에 제시된 풍하중 산정시 중요한 요인인 기본풍속 산정함에 있어서 1995년까지 측정된 풍속자료를 근거로 한 일반교량에 적합한 풍속을 명시하고 있어 장대교량에 적합한 풍속에 대한 재검토가 필요한 상황이다. 본 연구에서는 태풍의 빈도가 높고 대부분의 장대교량이 건설되고 있는 서남해안지역으로 구체화하였다. 풍하중기준과 같이 극치I형분포(Gumbel분포)에 의해 일반교량에 적용할 100년, 장대교량에 적용할 200년 재현기대풍속을 적률법과 최소자승법의 두 가지 방법으로 추정하고, 극한 상황인 해상에서 불어오는 풍속으로 보정하여 지상풍속보다 약 17%정도 큰 값을 추정하였다. RMS error 방법에 의해 재현기대풍속의 적합성을 평가한 결과 최소자승법이 서남해안지역의 경우 적합성이 우수하였다.

Damage from typhoon disaster can be mitigated by grasping and dealing with the damage promptly for the regions in typhoon track. What is this work, a technique to analyzed dangerousness of typhoon should be presupposed. This study estimated 10 m level wind speed using 700 hPa wind by typhoon, referring to GPS dropwindsonde study of Franklin(2003). For 700 hPa wind, 30 km resolution data of Regional Data Assimilation Prediction System(RDAPS) were used. For roughness length in estimating wind of 10 m level, landuse data of USGS are employed. For 10 m level wind speed of Typhoon Rusa in 2002, we sampled AWS site of 7.4～30 km distant from typhoon center and compare them with observational data. The results show that the 10 m level wind speed is the estimation of maximum wind speed which can appear in surface by typhoon and it cannot be compared with general hourly observational data. Wind load on domestic buildings relies on probability distributions of extreme wind speed. Hence, calculated 10 m level wind speed is useful for estimating the damage structure from typhoon.

In cargo-working, it unavoidably happens that the quay crane slip along the rail and the container move from side to side. Especially, they involve a lot of risk in bad weather. The rail clamp is a mooring device to prevent that the quay crane slips along the rail due to bad weather or the wind blast while the quay crane do the cargo-working And it will play a greater role in port container terminal integration and automation To design the wedge type rail clamp, it is very important to determine the wedge angle. In this study, we expect that the design wind speed of the quay crane will change over 16m/s. Assuming that the design wind speed is 40m/s, we determined the proper wedge angle of the wedge type rail clamp for the 50ton class quay crane.

A numerical simulation for 11 February 1996 has been done to grasp main mechanisms of the occurrence of strong downslope winds near Gangnung area. The simulation performed by using ARPS (Advanced Regional Prediction System) showed that enhanced surface winds were not related with a reflection of vertically propagating gravity waves. Froude numbers were about 1.0, 0.4 and 0.6 for the atmosphere above Daekwanryoung and above a place located 220 km upstream, and above another place located 230 km downstream from the Taebak mountains, respectively. This suggested that as a subcritical flow ascended the upslope side of the Taebak mountains, Froude numbers would tend to increase according to the increase in wind speed, and near the crest the flow would become supercritical and continue to accelerate as it went down the downslope side until it was adapted back to the ambient subcritical conditions in a turbulent hydraulic jump. Simulated Froude numbers corroborated the hydraulic jump nature of the strong downslope wind. In addition, the inversion was found near the mountain top height upstream of the mountains, and it was favorable for the occurrence of strong downslope winds.