기후연구 제13권 제1호 (p.17-35)

우리나라 여름철 기온의 계절 예측을 위한 통계 모델

An Empirical Model Approach for Seasonal Prediction of Summer Temperature in South Korea
키워드 :
tropical SST,teleconnection,empirical model,summertime temperature,South Korea,열대 해수면온도,원격상관,통계 모델,여름철 기온,남한

목차

1. 서론
2. 자료
  1) 관측 자료
  2) 전지구 기후모델 계절예측 자료
3. 결과
  1) 우리나라 여름철 기온의 특성
  2) 우리나라 여름철 기온과 동아시아 대규모 순환
  3) 원격상관을 이용한 기온 예측
  4) 역학적 계절 예측을 이용한 기온 예측
4. 요약 및 결론
사사

References

초록

The interannual variability of summer temperature during June-August (JJA) in South Korea was associated with geopotential height averaged in the East Sea (Korea-Japan Index, KJI) and in the subtropical western North Pacific (Western North Pacific Subtropical High Index, WNPSHI). The KJI was coupled with a decaying El Niño one month in advance, while the WNPSHI was influenced by Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly in the western North Pacific and a developing El Niño one to three months ahead. Additionally, the JJA temperature over South Korea was affected by SST anomaly in the western North Pacific in May. Based on these teleconnections, a multivariate regression model using the SST surrogates for the KJI and WNPSHI and an univariate model using an area-averaged May SST were developed to reconstruct the JJA temperature over South Korea. Both of the empirical models reproduced the JJA and monthly temperatures reasonably well. However, when the simulated SSTs from global climate models were used, the multivariate model outperformed the univariate model. Further, for JJA temperature prediction, the multivariate model with 6-month lead SST outstripped one-month lead prediction of global climate models. Therefore, the empirical-dynamical approach can pave a promising way for summer temperature prediction in South Korea.