Statistical analyses were performed to investigate the relative success and accuracy of daily maximum X-ray flux (MXF) predictions, using both multilinear regression and autoregressive time-series prediction methods. As input data for this work, we used 14 solar activity parameters recorded over the prior 2 year period (1989-1990) during the solar maximum of cycle 22. We applied the multilinear regression method to the following three groups: all 14 variables (G1), the 2 so-called 'cause' variables (sunspot complexity and sunspot group area) showing the highest correlations with MXF (G2), and the 2 'effect' variables (previous day MXF and the number of flares stronger than C4 class) showing the highest correlations with MXF (G3). For the advanced three days forecast, we applied the autoregressive timeseries method to the MXF data (GT). We compared the statistical results of these groups for 1991 data, using several statistical measures obtained from a 2x2 contingency table for forecasted versus observed events. As a result, we found that the statistical results of G1 and G3 are nearly the same each other and the 'effect' variables (G3) are more reliable predictors than the 'cause' variables. It is also found that while the statistical results of GT are a little worse than those of G1 for relatively weak flares, they are comparable to each other for strong flares. In general, all statistical measures show good predictions from all groups, provided that the flares are weaker than about M5 class; stronger flares rapidly become difficult to predict well, which is probably due to statistical inaccuracies arising from their rarity. Our statistical results of all flares except for the X-class flares were confirmed by Yates' X2 statistical significance tests, at the 99% confidence level. Based on our model testing, we recommend a practical strategy for solar X-ray flare predictions.

Active galactic nuclei (AGNs) are distant, powerful sources of radiation over the entire electromagnetic spectrum, from radio waves to gamma-rays. There is much evidence that they are driven by gravitational accretion of stars, dust, and gas, onto central massive black holes (MBHs) imprisoning anywhere from $\~$ 수식 이미지1 to $\~$ 수식 이미지10,000 million solar masses; such objects may naturally form in the centers of galaxies during their normal dynamical evolution. A small fraction of AGNs, of the radio-loud type (RLAGNs), are somehow able to generate powerful synchrotron-emitting structures (cores, jets, lobes) with sizes ranging from pc to Mpc. A brief summary of AGN observations and theories is given, with an emphasis on RLAGNs. Preliminary results from the imaging of 10000 extragalactic radio sources observed in the MITVLA snapshot survey, and from a new analytic theory of the time-variable power output from Kerr black hole magnetospheres, are presented. To better understand the complex physical processes within the central engines of AGNs, it is important to confront the observations with theories, from the viewpoint of analyzing the time-variable behaviours of AGNs - which have been recorded over both 'short' human (10 0-10 9s) and 'long' cosmic (10 13 - 10 17 s) timescales. Some key ingredients of a basic mathematical formalism are outlined, which may help in building detailed Monte-Carlo models of evolving AGN populations; such numerical calculations should be potentially important tools for useful interpretation of the large amounts of statistical data now publicly available for both AGNs and RLAGNs.

In this paper, we simplify the equations of the Macdonald-Thome black hole magnetosphere. Our major assumption is that the 3-D electric and magnetic flux isosurfaces respectively form families of confocal oblate spheroids and hyperboloids. As a result, the magnetospheric equations are greatly simplified, and may provide a useful framework for instances when rigorous, theoretical approaches are not necessary.