KOREASCHOLAR

Environmental changes play a significant role in the introduction, dispersal, and establishment of invasive species. This study aims to predict the habitat suitability of the newly invasive pest P. absoluta in South Korea by thoroughly considering key environmental factors, including climate and land cover changes. First, the MaxEnt model was developed to simulate changes in habitat suitability using global occurrence data and future climate change scenarios. Subsequently, potential risk areas (PRAs) for P. absoluta within agricultural regions were analyzed based on land cover changes. The results indicated that under all Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenario combinations, the PRA for SSP1 and SSP3 in 2055 were similar, with values of 47.85% and 48.62%, respectively. However, by 2085, these areas showed a marked decrease to 39.28% and 28.52%, respectively. These findings suggest that the PRA for P. absoluta is expected to be most critical in the near future as climate and land-use changes continue to progress. This study emphasizes the urgent need for ongoing monitoring and management to prevent further invasion and spread of P. absoluta into new regions of South Korea. Additionally, it provides scientific evidence to support the development of effective control and management strategies. By thoroughly evaluating the impact of climate and land cover changes on invasive species management, this research presents a foundational framework for predicting the spread and risks of P. absoluta under future climate scenarios.

Abstract
1. 서 론
2. 재료 및 방법
    2.1. 출현자료 및 연구 범위
    2.2. 환경변수
    2.3. MaxEnt 모형
    2.4. SSP 기반 통합 기후-토지피복 변화에 따른잠재 위험 면적 예측
3. 결 과
    3.1. MaxEnt 모형 구축 결과
    3.2. 전 지구 수준의 적합 서식지 예측 결과
    3.3. P. absoluta 의 국내 서식 적합도 예측 결과
    3.4. SSP에 따른 잠재 위험 면적 변화
4. 고 찰
적 요
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Declaration of Competing Interest
사 사
REFERENCES

• 정지원(경상국립대학교 식물의학과) | Jiwon Jeong (Department of Plant Medicine, Gyeongsang National University, Jinju 52828, Republic of Korea)
• 홍진솔(고려대학교 오정리질리언스연구원) | Jinsol Hong (Ojeong Resilience Institute, Korea University, Seoul 02841, Republic of Korea)
• 박태철(경상국립대학교 식물의학과) | Taechul Park (Department of Plant Medicine, Gyeongsang National University, Jinju 52828, Republic of Korea)
• 엄소은(경상국립대학교 식물의학과) | SoEun Eom (Department of Plant Medicine, Gyeongsang National University, Jinju 52828, Republic of Korea)
• 조기종(고려대학교 환경생태공학부) | Kijong Cho (Division of Environmental Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University, Seoul 02841, Republic of Korea) Corresponding author
• 박정준(경상국립대학교 식물의학과, 경상국립대학교 농업생명과학연구원) | Jung-Joon Park (Department of Plant Medicine, Gyeongsang National University, Jinju 52828, Republic of Korea, Institute of Agriculture and Life Science, Gyeongsang National University, Jinju 52828, Republic of Korea) Corresponding author