논문 상세보기
저 빈도 대형 사고의 예측기법에 관한 연구 KCI 등재
Forecasting low-probability high-risk accidents
한국산업경영시스템학회지
(Journal of Society of Korea Industrial and Systems Engineering)
Vol. 30 No. 3 (2007.09)
pp.37-43
pp.37-43
한국산업경영시스템학회
(Society of Korea Industrial and Systems Engineering)
초록
We use influence diagrams to describe event trees used in safety analyses of low-probability high-risk incidents. This paper shows how the branch parameters used in the event tree models can be updated by a bayesian method based on the observed counts o
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