In this study the effect caused by limited storage lift of agricultural products for determining shipping amount can be analyzed by lst order autoregressive model based on cobweb theorem. Carrying capacity and auction price of upland-grown cabbage and garlic from 2000 to 2003 in wholesale markets were used for analysis. In result regression models of cabbage can not be used in verification periods although those of garlic approximately predicted shipping amounts in verification periods. It can be inferred that it is hard to control shipping amounts depending on price fluctuation for agricultural products which have limited storage life so cultivated areas and meteorological risk should be managed for stable price.

• 서교 | Suh, Kyo
• 이정재 | Lee, Jeong-Jae