Distributions of ants are mainly dependent on temperature. Hence, global warming would lead to shifts of distribution and abundance in ants. We surveyed ants at 366 forest sampling sites in South Korea using pitfall traps to predict change of ant abundance. Abundances of ant species were projected on the projected temperature based on A1B climate scenario. Common species (> 10 % occurrence) were analyzed on the relationship between abundance and temperature, and 16 species of the common species were selected for projection of abundance owing to future climate warming. Abundance of the selected species were projected on 900 m2 grid cells in 2011 and 2060 using GIS tool. In the projection, 11 species are predicted to decrease in 2060, whereas 5 species are predicted to increase. Myrmica kotokui, a most dominant highland species is expected to decrease up to 2.5% of current abundance in 2060, whereas Pachycondyla chinensis is expected to increase up to 264%. This abrupt change of ants would lead to cascade effects on other organisms such as insects, plants, mushrooms, and birds, which would disturb various functions and services of forest ecosystems.

• Tae-Sung Kwon(Division of Forest Ecology, Korea Forest Research Institute)
• Cheol Min Lee(Division of Forest Ecology, Korea Forest Research Institute)
• Jung-Hwa Chon(Division of Forest Ecology, Korea Forest Research Institute)