It is well known that the space radiation dose over the polar route should be carefully considered especially when the space weather shows sudden disturbances such as CME and flares. The National Meteorological Satellite Center (NMSC) and Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI) recently established a basis for a space radiation service for the public by developing a space radiation prediction model and heliocentric potential (HCP) prediction model. The HCP value is used as a critical input value of the CARI-6 and CARI-6M programs, which estimate the aviation route dose. The CARI-6/6M is the most widely used and confidential program that is officially provided by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The HCP value is given one month late in the FAA official webpage, making it difficult to obtain real-time information on the aviation route dose. In order to overcome this limitation regarding time delay, we developed a HCP prediction model based on the sunspot number variation. In this paper, we focus on the purpose and process of our HCP prediction model development. Finally, we find the highest correlation coefficient of 0.9 between the monthly sunspot number and the HCP value with an eight month time shift.

1. INTRODUCTION
 2. HCP PREDICTION MODEL
  2.1 CARI-6/6M and HCP
  2.2 Correlation Analysis
 3. APPLICATION TO SPACE WEATHER SERVICES
 4. SUMMARY
 REFERENCES

• Junga Hwang(Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, Daejeon 305-348, Korea, Korea University of Science and Technology, Yuseoung Gu, Daejeon, 305-350, Korea) Corresponding author
• Kyung-Chan Kim(Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, Daejeon 305-348, Korea)
• Kyunghwan Dokgo(Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon 305-701 Korea)
• Enjin Choi(Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, Daejeon 305-348, Korea, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon 305-701 Korea)
• Hang-Pyo Kim(Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, Daejeon 305-348, Korea, Korea University of Science and Technology 217 Gajungro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-333, Korea)