Heliothis assulta is the most severe pest of pepper in Korea. The management of this pest is very difficult because the larva live in the pepper fruit and emerge continuously. There are relatively abundant studies about temperature development of H. assulta, but few works are available to describe its future population dynamics which is caused by global warming. If we predict the long-term-population dynamics we can manage the H. assulta more effectively. Therefore we simulated the population size using the computer softwater, DYMEX, developed by CSIRO in Australia. Especially, we predicted population dynamics of H. assulta applying past climate data (1965-1985) and future climate data (2065-2085) which were generated by National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR). Comparing to past population dynamics, the epidemic size and frequency would increase in the future. This means that the population management of H. assulta should be conducted more sophisticatedly.

• Hyoung-ho Mo(Division of Environmental Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University)
• Kijong Cho(Division of Environmental Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University)