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The effects of elevated temperatures on the population phenology and abundance of citrus pests in Jeju, Korea
- 언어ENG
- URLhttps://db.koreascholar.com/Article/Detail/290586
According to the IPCC report (IPCC, 2001), the global-mean surface temperature has risen by 0.6 oC during the 20th century due to the increase of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, and the mean temperature of the Korean Peninsula is also risen by 1.5 oC during the same period due to global warming as well as rapid urbanization. During the 21st century, the global-mean temperature is projected to rise 1.5-5.8oC associated with the various scenarios from IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) (2000). Climate change is expected to have important impacts on the relationship between crops and insect pests as well as on human societies. Frazier et al. (2006) demonstrated that warm-adapted insect species have much higher maximum population growth rate (intrinsic rate of increase) than do cold-adapted species; which indicates biochemical and physiological adaptations of insects do not overcome the constrain of thermodynamics. Consequently, global warming could lead to an increase in the number of insects worldwide.
This presentation will discuss the changes in the population abundance of several citrus pests according to global warming. The differences of population growth rates between normal year's or past temperatures and elevated temperatures were compared, and also analytical models such as matrix model and predator-prey model were applied to project the performance of population dynamics of some pests and natural enemy.
