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Predicting species richness changes in 21 dominant Araneae (Arachnida) species under climate change scenario in Korea
Araneae species are predators in natural ecosystem interact with various prey species. These linkage can be affected under climate change because species react not just individually but systematically. We focused on potential impact of climate change in Araneae fauna in national scale. In this study, potential species richness of Araneae in South Korea was predicted with MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) model. Korea Forest Research Institute conducted national scale research of wandering arthropods. They monitored in uniformly set 366 points, and the data contain exact GPS points of study sites. Occurrence data were extracted from Prediction of Distribution and Abundance of Forest Spiders According to Climate Scenario (Korea Forest Research Institute, 2013). With the report, dominant 21 Araneae species that appeared more than 10% study sites were selected to estimate species richness. Training climate data were prepared from observation source of Korea Meteorological Administration. RCP 8.5 scenario data which represent future (2050, 2070) climate condition were downloaded from WORLDCLIM web site. In MaxEnt simulation, occurrence data for 21 species and 19 bioclimatic variables were used. Because the model outputs are expressed in index, the minimum training presence threshold rule was applied to distinguish presence/absence of each 21 species distribution model. We overlaid whole 21 thresholded output to get species richness map. The fluctuation between current and future species richness was calculated to observe changing trend in national scale. The results of Araneae fauna tends to move higher altitude and latitude. Species richness of lowlands is predicted to be diminished, but higher mountains are expected to be more suitable for many spider species. In some South Western coastal areas showed reduced richness in 2050 but will recover in 2070.
