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An Evaluation of Climate Change Impact on Rice Yield Using a Rice Growth Simulation Model in Korea KCI 등재
objective of the current study was to evaluate the change of rice yield under the projected climate change condition. The rice model included in "Decision Support System for Precise Management of Rice Culture” developed in Crop Environment and Production Technology Lab. of Seoul National University was validated prior to simulation experiment. For model input, the daily weather data were generated by SIMMETEO method from the monthly normal maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation of the current period, 1971-2000 and the three periods in the future, 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. The climate change projected using A1B emission scenario by Korea National Meteorological Institute was used for the periods in the future. Simulation experiments were carried out using three cultivars, Odaebyeo, Hwasungbyeo and Dongjinbyeo under six transplanting dates from May 10 to June 30. The vegetative and ripening period is expected to decrease respectively by 10 and 30 days in 2071-2100. High temperature-induced sterility is projected to increase by about 8% until 2071-2100. Rice yield on national average was simulated to decrease by 3, 7, and 13 % in 2011-2040. 2041-2070, and 2071-2100 periods, respectively. Though adaptation strategies that select the cultivar among the current cones and change the transplanting date would alleviate the yield decrease, the yield decrease of about 7% is still anticipated in 2071-2100.
