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산업연관분석을 통한 초고온가스로 건설 파급효과 분석 KCI 등재

VHTR Construction Ripple Effect Analysis Using Inter-Industry Tables

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한국산업경영시스템학회지 (Journal of Society of Korea Industrial and Systems Engineering)
한국산업경영시스템학회 (Society of Korea Industrial and Systems Engineering)
초록

The VHTR (Very High Temperature gas-cooled nuclear Reactor) has been considered as a major heat source and the most safe generation IV type reactor for mass hydrogen production to prepare for the hydrogen economy era. The VHTR satisfies goals for the GIF (Generation IV International Forum) policy such as sustainablility, economics, reliability and proliferation resistance and physical protection, and safety. As a part of a VHTR economic analysis, we have studied the VHTR construction cost and operation and maintenance cost. However, it is somewhat difficult to expect the ripple effect on the whole industry due to the lack of information about Inter-industries relationship. In many case, the ripple effect are based on experts’ knowledge or uncertain qualitative assumptions. As a result, we propose quantitative analysis techniques for ripple effects such as the production inducement effect, added value inducement effect, and employment inducement effect for VHTR 600MWt×4 modules construction and operation ripple effect based on NOAK (Nth Of A Kind). Because inducement effect values have been published annually, we predict inducement effect’s relation function and estimated values including production inducement effect value, added value inducement effect value, and employment inducement effect value using time series and estimated values are verified with published inducement effects’ value. This paper presents a new method for the ripple effect and preliminary ripple effect consequence using a time series analysis and inter-industry table. This ripple effect analysis techniques can be applied to effect expectation analysis as well as other type reactor’s ripple effect analysis including VHTR for process heat.

목차
1. 서 론
 2. 파급효과 분석
  2.1 산업연관표
  2.2 파급 효과 입력 기초 자료
  2.3 파급 효과 분석 과정
 3. 결 론
 Acknowledgement
 References
저자
  • 이태훈(한국원자력연구원 VHTR기술개발부) | Tae-Hoon Lee Corresponding Author
  • 이기영(한국원자력연구원 VHTR기술개발부) | Ki-Young Lee