논문 상세보기
pp.171-178
본 연구는 제한속력 설정 모델 개발을 위한 1차 연구로서 제한속력 설정 시 고려요소에는 어떤 것이 있으며, 각 요소별 중요도는 얼마나 되는지에 대한 연구의 결과이다. 고려요소 식별과 중요도 산정을 위해 델파이(Delphi)기법과 AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process)기법을 이용하였다. 델파이 설문은 3차에 걸쳐 수행하였고 3차에 걸친 설문을 통해 5개 상위요소(Level 1)와 23개 하위요소(Level 2)가 식별되었다. 3차 델파이 설문과정에서 내용타당도비율(CVR)값이 0.4~1.0 범위에 있으면 제한속력 설정 시 고려요소로서 반영하였고 0.4 미만의 값은 고려요소에서 제외하였다. 2차 델파이 설문과정에서 33개 고려요소가 식별되었으나 3차 설문을 통해 23개 항목으로 축소되었다. 델파이 3차 분석을 통해 얻은 23개 항목을 대상으로 AHP 설문을 수행하였다. AHP 설문 결과, 5개 상위요소(Level 1)에 대한 중요도는 교통조건이 가장 중요한 요소로 평가되었고, 선박조건, 항로조건, 자연조건, 외부지원 및 기타 조건 순으로 평가되었다. 23개 하위요소 중에서 시정이 가장 중요(1위)하다고 평가되었으며, 선박조종성능, 항로 내 수중장애물, 교통량 및 밀도, 통항선박간 거리, 타효가능속력, 조류 순으로 평가되었다.
This research is the first research on developing the speed limit select model and also it is the result of the research on the importance of each element and consideration factors when selecting the speed limit. For the consideration factor discrimination and calculation of the importance, the delphi method and AHP method was used. The delphi survey was processed through third round survey, 5 high consideration factor(Level 1) and 23 low consideration factor(Level 2) was discriminated. During the process of the third delphi survey, when the CVR cost was in the range between 0.4~1.0 it was treated as the consideration factor when selecting the speed limit and less than 0.4 cost was eliminated. In the process of the second delphi survey, 33 consideration factors were discriminated but was reordered into 23 categories through the third survey. Based on the 23 categories earned through the third delphi analysis, the AHP survey was processed. The result of the AHP survey was that out of the importance of the 5 high consideration factor(Level 1), the traffic condition was evaluated as the number one factor and the vessel condition, waterway condition, environment condition, supporting condition and etc. conditions were evaluated following the traffic condition. Out of the 23 low consideration factor(Level 2) consideration, the visibility was evaluated to be the first important and the performance of the vessel steering, objective factors within the harbor, amount of traffic and density, distance between the passing vessel, speed of the steering capacity and tidal current were the following evaluated factors.
