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Is Currency Appreciation or Depreciation Expansionary in Thailand? KCI 등재 SCOPUS

  • 언어ENG
  • URLhttps://db.koreascholar.com/Article/Detail/343354
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한국유통과학회 (Korea Distribution Science Association)
초록

Many developing countries have attempted to depreciate their currencies in order to make their products cheaper, stimulate exports, shift aggregate demand to the right, and increase aggregate output. However, currency depreciation tends to increase import prices, raise domestic inflation, reduce capital inflows, and shift aggregate supply to the left. The net impact is unclear. The paper incorporates the monetary policy function in the model, which is determined by the inflation gap, the output gap, the real effective exchange rate, and the world real interest rate. Applying an extended IS-MP-AS model (Romer, 2000), the paper finds that real depreciation raised real GDP during 1997.Q1-2005.Q3 whereas real appreciation increased real GDP during 2005.Q4-2017.Q2. In addition, a higher government debt-to-GDP ratio, a lower U.S. real federal funds rate, a higher real stock price, a lower real oil price or a lower expected inflation rate would help increase real GDP. Hence, real depreciation or real appreciation may increase or reduce aggregate output, depending upon the level of economic development. Although expansionary fiscal policy is effective in stimulating the economy, caution needs to be exercised as there may be a debt threshold beyond which a further increase in the debt-to-GDO ratio would hurt economic growth.

목차
Abstract
 1. Introduction
 2. Theoretical Model
 3. Empirical Results
 4. Summary and Conclusions
 References
저자
  • Yu Hsing(epartment of Management & Business Administration, College of Business, Southeastern Louisiana University)