This study analyzes the impacts of agricultural water shortages in Korea using a combined top-down and bottom-up model. A multi-region multi-output agricultural sector model with detailed descriptions of production technologies and water and land resource constraints has been combined with a standard CGE model. The impacts of four different water shortage scenarios were simulated. It is shown that an active adaptation of crop choices occurs in even the regions with relatively abundant water resources in order to respond to the change in relative output prices caused by water shortages. We found that although the losses in production values are not quite large despite water shortages due to the price feedbacks, the loss in GDP is substantial. We show that our combined approach has advantages in deriving region and product specific production effects as well as the overall GDP loss effect of water shortages.

I. 서 론
 II. 모형과 자료구축
  2.1 하향식 모형
  2.2 상향식 모형
  2.3 통합모형의 연계 알고리듬
  2.4 상향식 모형의 수정 및 모형 운용을 위한 자료구축
 III. 농업 수자원 부족의 영향 분석
 IV. 요약 및 결론
 References

• 이승호(서울대학교 농경제사회학부 박사과정, Ph. D. Student, Department. of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Seoul National University) | Lee, Seoung-Ho
• 권오상(서울대학교 농경제사회학부 교수 겸 농업생명과학연구원 겸무연구원, Professor, Department. of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Seoul National University) | Kwon, Oh-Sang Corresponding author
• 강성원(한국환경정책평가연구원 선임연구위원, Senior Research Fellow, Korea Environment Institute) | Kang, Sung-Won