Over the recent decades, apartment in Korea have experienced performance degradation. To solve this problem, Long-term repair program has been going on. However that program is applying deterministic model. The repair program using the existing deterministic model can not be taken into consideration of various case, and the number of repairs other than the plan is increasing. Therefore, This study try probabilistic models using Monte-carlo simulation those based on reliability and risk, instead of deterministic those just considering mean value. Probabilistic model of repair cycle will be base of efficient and correct maintenance plan.

Abstract
 1. 서 론
 2. 확률론적 수선주기 분석 모델
 3. 결 론
 참고문헌

• 박소연(한양대학교 건축시스템공학과) | Park, So Yeon
• 이상효(강원대학교 건설융합학부) | Lee, Sang Hyo
• 안용한(한양대학교 건축학부) | Ahn, Yong Han 교신저자