This paper is intended to develop a Bayesian decision model for the repair of deteriorating system. A non-homogeneous Poisson process with a power law failure intensity function is used to describe the behavior of the deteriorating repairable system. The decision on whether to have minimal repair or imperfect repair should be made on the occurrence of a failure. However, it is difficult to make a reasonable decision due to many uncertainties intrinsic in repair actions. In this paper, prior distributions are used in order to analyze the uncertainties embedded in the decision alternatives. Especially, a prior distribution for imperfect repair with probabilistic reduction in the failure intensity is proposed. In addition, mathematical expressions to calculate the expected prior loss of each repair alternative are proposed.

Abstract
 1. 서론
 2. 열화시스템의 고장발생 모형
 3. 베이지안 의사결정 분석모형
  3.1 사전분포의 추론
  3.2 사전분석
  3.3 사후분석
 4. 실험예제
 5. 결론
 참고문헌

• 김택상(한양대학교 산업공학과)
• 안선응(한양대학교 정보경영공학과)