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실시간 대화형 화산재 확산 예측 시스템에 의한 화산재 확산 예측 KCI 등재

Case Studies of Predicting Volcanic Ash by Interactive Realtime Simulator

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한국환경과학회지 (Journal of Environmental Science International)
한국환경과학회 (The Korean Environmental Sciences Society)
초록

Analyzing the observational data of volcanic activities around the northern part of Korean peninsula, the odds of volcano eruption increases continuously. For example, the cumulative seismic moment and frequence observed near Mt. Baekdu show a sudden increased values. In this study, predicting the diffusion of volcanic ash for two cases were carried out by using interactive realtime simulator, which was developed during last 2 years as a research and development project. The first case is Sakurajima volcano (VEI=3) erupted in August 2013. The second case is assumed as the volcanic eruption at Mt. Baekdu (VEI=7) under landing circumstance of typhoon Maemi (August 2003) in Korean peninsula. The synoptic condition and ash diffusion for the two cases were simulated by WRF(Weather Research and Forecast) model and Lagrangian dispersion model, respectively. Comparing the simulated result of the first case (i.e., Sakurajima volcano) with satellite image, the diffusion pattern show acceptable result. The interactive realtime simulator can be available to support decision making under volcanic disaster around East Asia by predicting several days of ash dispersion within several minutes with ordinary desktop personal computer.

목차
Abstract
 1. 서 론
 2. 대화형 화산재 확산 예측 시스템 개발
  2.1. 입자 확산 예측 알고리즘
  2.2. 화산재 분출량 계산 알고리즘
  2.3. 화산재 농도 변환 알고리즘
  2.4. 실시간 대화형 3D 표출
 3. 화산재 확산 예측 사례
 4. 결론
 감사의 글
 참고문헌
저자
  • 김해동(계명대학교 지구환경학과) | Hae-Dong Kim (Department Of Global Environment, Keimyung University) Corresponding author
  • 이전희(기상청 관측기반국 지진정책과) | Jun-Hee Lee (Earthquake Policy Division/Korea Meteorological Administration)