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Simulation modelling to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies during the 2010/11 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in the city of Andong, Republic of Korea KCI 등재

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예방수의학회지 (Journal of Preventive Veterinary Medicine)
한국예방수의학회(구 한국수의공중보건학회) (The Korean Society of Preventive Veterinary Medicine)
초록

A simulation model of the 2010/11 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in the city of Andong, Republic of Korea was constructed to evaluate the epidemiologic effectiveness of FMD-control strategies. Seven FMD-control strategies were evaluated with respect to a number of epidemiologic indicators relating to the outbreak, including the number of infected animals, number of infected farms, and epidemic duration. The FMD-control strategies in the model consisted of pre-emptive slaughtering, movement restriction, and vaccination; however, levels of each control option differed. The constructed model was not perfectly representative of the 2010/11 FMD epidemic, although it was considered to mimic the actual FMD epidemic in its prediction of two outcomes: the median number of simulated FMD-detected farms was 294 (range 207–515), which was close to the number of farms detected (299) during the actual FMD epidemic (x2=87.239, df=98, p = 0.774); and the simulated epidemic curve was visually similar to the actual epidemic curve of the 2010/11 FMD epidemic. The effectiveness evaluation of simulated FMD-control strategies emphasized the amount the FMD outbreak size could have increased if the radius of the pre-emptive slaughtering area or the duration of movement restriction were decreased.

목차
Abstract
 INTRODUCTION
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
  Epidemic history and study population
  Model description
  Methods to control FMD
  Sensitivity analysis
 RESULTS
  Baseline model
  Alternative strategies
  Sensitivity analysis
 DISCUSSION
 REFERENCES
저자
  • Eu-Tteum Kim(College of Veterinary Medicine and Institute of Veterinary Science, Kangwon National University)
  • Son-Il Pak(College of Veterinary Medicine and Institute of Veterinary Science, Kangwon National University) Corresponding Author