In this paper, the long-term reliability of swash plate type hydraulic pump is studied by prognostics method. For the purpose, the pumping power of hydraulic pump is measured for 00 cycles and the performance after 00 cycles is estimated using the particle filter method. To verify the predicted 00 cycle's performance, the actual test results are compared with the estimated result and the trend of estimation is well matched with actual test results. The long-term reliability evaluation using the prognostics method performed in this study shows the feasibility that can be utilized in development phase of tracked vehicle to improve the quality of initial products.