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편의보정된 다중지역기후모델 산출물의 불확실성 범위 추정 및 미래 전망 KCI 등재

Estimation of Uncertainties and Projection for Bias-corrected Outputs of Multi-regional Climate Models

  • 언어KOR
  • URLhttps://db.koreascholar.com/Article/Detail/366172
  • DOIhttps://doi.org/10.14383/cri.2018.13.4.263
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기후연구 (Journal of Climate Research)
건국대학교 기후연구소 (KU Climate Research Institute)
초록

In this study, uncertainty ranges for bias-corrected temperature and precipitation in seven metro-cities were estimated using nine GCM-RCM Matrix, and climate changes were predicted based on the corrected temperature and precipitation. During the present climate (1981-2005), both uncertainties for annual temperature and precipitation and differences in regional uncertainties were reduced by bias correction methods. Model’s systematic errors such as cold bias of surface air temperature and underestimated precipitation during the second-Changma period were improved by a bias correction method. Uncertainties of annual variations for bias corrected temperature and precipitation were also decrease. Furthermore, not only mean values but also extreme values were improved by bias correction methods. During the future climate (2021-2050), differences in temperature and precipitation between two RCP scenarios (RCP4.5/8.5) were not quite large. Temperature had an obvious increasing tendency, while future precipitation did not change significantly compared to present one in terms of mean values. Uncertainties for future biascorrected temperature and precipitation were also reduced. In mid-21st centuries, models prospected that mean temperature increased thus lower extremes associated with cold wave decreased and upper extremes associated with heat wave increased. Models also predicted that variations of future precipitation increased thus the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation increased.

목차
Abstract
 1. 서론
 2. 자료 및 분석 방법
 3. 연구 결과
 4. 요약 및 결론
 References
저자
  • 김가영(울산과학기술원 도시환경공학부) | Gayoung Kim (School of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science & Technology)
  • 차동현(울산과학기술원 도시환경공학부) | Dong-Hyun Cha (School of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science & Technology) Correspondence
  • 박창용(울산과학기술원 도시환경공학부) | Changyoung Park (School of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science & Technology)