In this research, two stochastic models are considered to detect and estimate the effect of air temperature change due to industrialization in Ulsan area. Using the monthly mean minimum air temperature anomalies, the data are divided into pre-industrialization part and industrialization one for analysis. The ARMA(autoregressive moving-average) model and intervention model have been applied to the data for the analysis. The results show that the variability of minimum temperature anomalies are very significant in 1989, and also significant in 1971 when the industrialization have started. Therefore, it is stochastically possible to estimate the time when the affection of increase of the temperature concerning industrialization to climate change in Ulsan area has happened.

• 조익현(부산대학교 대기과학과) | Eek-Hyun Cho (Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University)
• 안중배(부산대학교 대기과학과) | Joong-Bae Ahn (Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University)
• 손건태(부산대학교 통계학과) | Keon-Tae Sohn (Dept. of Statistics, Pusan National University)