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한국 원/달러환율과 금리의 관계분석

Analysis about relation of Won/Dollar Foreign Exchange Rate and Interest Rate of Korea

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  • URLhttps://db.koreascholar.com/Article/Detail/368458
구독 기관 인증 시 무료 이용이 가능합니다. 4,800원
대한안전경영과학회 (Korea Safety Management & Science)
초록

International capital movement has made progress at global liberalization of finance and foreign exchange, international monetary norm changing into floating exchange rate system, easiness of collection of information and trade at improvement of information communication technology from early of 1970's. Results of empirical test for relation between foreign exchange rate or various determination factors of foreign exchange rate and interest rate are followed by next sentences. First, according to relation between foreign exchange rate and interest rate, correlation for each of variables after OECD entrance is increased. But, long-term &short-term interest rate is affected by Hanbo & Kia's bankruptcy, continuous large scale coporates bankruptcy and crisis of foreign exchange. Therefore, financial instability is occured. If portfolio investment fund has been inflow as it is mollified by continuous shortage of foreign exchange and fall of country's credit rating, it is expected to have positive effect for long-term & short-term interest rate from appreciation of won against dollar. Second, results from relation between determination factor of foreign exchange rate and interest rate are followed by next sentences. If surplus of current account and goods account is continued, yield of corporate bond is to be stable. But, margin of surplus is expected to diminish after second quarter 98, and difference between external and domestic interest (after adjusting foreign exchange rate) is to be diminished. And if net inflows of foreign investor's fund (stock and bond) is diminished, it is to have negative effect for yield of corporate bond. According to foreign investor's investment movement of previous years, hedge md were stayed at least during two years in Mexico. It means that sudden capital outflow is not to be happened at Korea. But if external factors from depreciation of yen and China's renminbi are instable, interest rate is expected to increase from capital's outflows. Third, if it is to decrease instability of foreign exchange rate from increase in surplus of future current account, credit rating's upwardness, stability of yen and renminbi, foreign exchange rate is expected to be stable. It is expected to have continuous stability from short-term interest rate to long-term interest rate in this empirical test.

목차
Abstract
 1. 서론
 2. 환율과 금리의 관계에 대한 이론적 고찰
 3. 환율 및 환율결정요인과 금리의 관계에 대한 실증분석
  3.1 환율과 금리의 관계
  3.2 환율의 결정요인들과 금리의 관계
  3.3 환율의 장단기금리에 대한 영향
 4. 요약 및 결론
 부록 : VAR 모형
 5. 참고문헌
저자
  • 김종권