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Development of mosquito density index using non-linear model and machine learning method
- 언어ENG
- URLhttps://db.koreascholar.com/Article/Detail/369814
It is known that the growth and development of the mosquito are greatly affected by the change of the meteorological factors. In particular, temperature and precipitation are closely related to the life cycle of the mosquito, and their effects have different characteristics for each species of mosquito. Therefore, to develop a mosquito activity index based on mosquito density, it is essential to develop a prediction model based on weather data. In this study, we developed a functional formula that can estimate the change of mosquito density according to the change of meteorological factors using the mosquito classification data of Incheon region collected from 2011 to 2017. Also, using the data of the digital mosquito monitoring system (DMS) from April to October 2018, mosquito activity index according to characteristics of space in city was developed. In order to reflect the temporal characteristics of the mosquito life-cycle, we used data of temperature and precipitation prior to 1-2 weeks, and used land cover data to reflect the spatial characteristics of mosquito density. Density of Culex pipiens collected in the Incheon area were gradually increased when the average temperature increased two weeks ago after adjusting the precipitation. However, when the average temperature reached 22°C, the density of Culex pipiens marked a peak, and above the 22°C, the density was decreased. The predicted mosquito activity index calculated by applying the machine learning method to the DMS data of the Incheon area is designed to calculate from 1 to 10 grades. The accuracy of the mosquito activity index was 87% when the one grade error was allowed.
