PURPOSES: The purpose of this study is to develop a traffic accident prediction model using statistical data, to analyze child traffic accidents in school zones. Furthermore, we analyze the factors affecting child traffic accidents, as obtained from the results of the developed model. METHODS : From the literature review, we obtained data for child traffic accidents and various variables relating to road geometry and traffic safety facilities in school zones. We used these variables and data to develop a child traffic accident analysis model. The model was then developed into three types using the Limdep 9.0 statistical tool.
RESULTS: As a result of the overdispersion test, the Poisson regression model was applied to all types of models with an overdispersion coefficient of close to zero. The results of the model development are as follows. The main model (all scope of analysis) was for a kindergarten, considering a local roadway, the accessibility of the roadway, the number of unsignalized intersections, and the school zones in commercial area as variables that increase traffic accidents. Sub-model typeⅠ(only the roadway connected to the main entrance) was for a kindergarten, considering a local roadway, skid resistant pavement, no-parking signs, the number of unsignalized intersections, and the number of commercial facilities as variables that increase traffic accidents. The main model and sub-model type Ⅰ showed a reduction in accidents when using forward-type traffic signals. Sub-model typeⅡ(only the roadway not connected to the main entrance) shows that the local roadway is the variable that most increases the probability of traffic accidents. However, when the roadway and walkway are separated, the probability of traffic accidents decreases significantly, by up to 90%. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study demonstrate the need to restructure the method used to improve school zones. Moreover, the effect of various traffic safety facilities was quantitatively analyzed.

ABSTRACT
1. 서론
2. 선행연구
    2.1. 어린이보호구역 관련 기존연구 고찰
    2.2. 기존연구와의 차별성
3. 분석범위 정립 및 분석자료 수집
    3.1. 분석범위 정립
    3.2. 분석자료 수집
4. 어린이보호구역 교통사고분석모형 개발
    4.1. 교통사고분석모형 이론 검토
    4.2. 모형개발 결과
5. 결론 및 논의
REFERENCES

• 김도훈(인천대학교 건설환경공학부) | Kim Dohoon
• 김응철(인천대학교 건설환경공학부) | Kim Eungcheol
• 박민호(인천연구원 교통물류연구실) | Park Minho 교신저자