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지역 간 통행을 고려한 감염병 확산모형 개발 KCI 등재

A Development of Epidemic Model Considering Interregional trips

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  • URLhttps://db.koreascholar.com/Article/Detail/382509
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한국도로학회논문집 (International journal of highway engineering)
한국도로학회 (Korean Society of Road Engineers)
초록

PURPOSES: The purpose of this study is to develop an epidemic model considering interregional trips. METHODS : We developed the SIR-T model, which is an epidemic model of infectious diseases based on a metapopulation model considering the interactions between population groups. This model can consider the characteristics of the modes. A simulation was performed using this model to analyze the progress of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) in Korea, in 2015. RESULTS: The simulation results show that the spread of infectious diseases through passenger cars was the fastest and had the largest spread range. In the case of public transportation systems such as intercity buses, public railways, and high-speed railways, infectious diseases spread primarily at major terminal facilities and traffic facilities. CONCLUSIONS: The epidemic model of infectious diseases considering the interregional trips proposed in this study can be used as the base data for prevention strategy planning. However, a significant limitation is the lack of discussion on simulation parameter settings in this study, and further discussions are required in future studies.

목차
ABSTRACT
1. 서론
    1.1. 연구의 배경 및 목적
    1.2. 이론적 배경 및 선행연구 고찰
    1.3. 감염병 확산모형 고찰
2. 감염병 확산모형 정립
3. 감염병 확산모형의 적용
    3.1. 네트워크 구축
    3.2. 모형의 Parameter 설정
    3.3. 적용 결과
4. 결론
    4.1. 결론 및 정책적 제언
    4.2. 연구의 한계점 및 향후연구과제
REFERENCES
저자
  • 조황영(서울대학교 환경대학원) | Cho Hwangyoung
  • 이상조(한국교통연구원) | Lee Sangjo
  • 이준(한국교통연구원) | Lee jun 교신저자