The goal of the current study was to explore the relationship between vehicle movement frequency and a disease outbreak by using the example of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak in 2014 in the Republic of Korea. To explore the relationship between the HPAI outbreak status of Korean provinces and vehicle movements, both an ordinary least square model (OLS) and a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) were built. The HPAI outbreak status of each province was used as a dependent variable. The number of poultry farm vehicle movements within the province (within variable), the number of poultry farm vehicle movements from one province to another province (outbound variable), the number of poultry farm vehicle movements from other provinces to one province (inbound variable), and the number of poultry farms in each province were included in the models as independent variables. Results of the OLS model were as follows: the estimated coefficient of the log-transformed within variable was -0.30, that of the log-transformed outbound variable was 0.71, that of the log-transformed inbound variable was -0.30, and that of the number of poultry farms was 0.07; however, only the number of poultry farms per province was statistically significant. Results of the MaxEnt model were as follows: the median relative contribution of the log-transformed outbound variable was 52.0 (range: 12.2–83.9), that of the log-transformed inbound variable was 34.4 (range: 8.8–83.4), that of the log-transformed within variable was 3.7 (range: 1.8–7.3), and that of the number of poultry farms per province was 0.7 (range: 0.0–11.7). The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was 0.683. The results of current study should be helpful for planning a national HPAI surveillance program to locate surveillance resources with the consideration of risk level of provinces.

Abstract
INTRODUCTION
MATERIALS AND METHODS
    HPAI epidemics
    MaxEnt model
RESULTS
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION
REFERENCES

• Eu-Tteum Kim(College of Veterinary Medicine and Institute of Veterinary Science, Kangwon National University)
• Son-Il Pak(College of Veterinary Medicine and Institute of Veterinary Science, Kangwon National University) Corresponding Author