논문 상세보기
pp.31-57
Korea-US FTA amendment became effective January 1, 2019 through several trade negotiations between the two countries. These amendments did not include changes in the agricultural sector. However, given the policy direction of the Trump administration, it is difficult to be certain that the existing Korea-US FTA on the agricultural sector will remain unchanged. This study examines the potential impact of changes in the US beef import tariff rates under the Korea-US FTA, which is progressively eliminated until 2026 using a dynamic partial equilibrium model. The modelling system is simulated with 100% decreases of tariff rates over 2020~2026 period and then compared to the baseline which is developed based on the current Korea–US FTA tariff rates. According to the scenario analyses results, 100% decreases of US beef tariff rate lowered Korean beef cattle production value up to 4.23%. Looking at this change in terms of absolute value rather than percentage, the total production value over 2020~2026 is expected to decrease by 815 billion won compared to Baseline. This reduction in production value in dynamic analysis is 67 billion won higher than the comparative static analysis.
Ⅱ. 선행연구 검토
Ⅲ. 국내 쇠고기 시장
1. 쇠고기 생산 및 소비 현황
2. 쇠고기 수입 현황
Ⅳ. 연구 방법
1. 분석 모형
2. 분석 자료
3. 분석 방법
Ⅴ. 연구 결과
1. 단위근 검정 결과
2. 모형 추정 결과
3. 기준전망치 시뮬레이션 결과
4. 시나리오 시뮬레이션 결과
Ⅵ. 요약 및 결론
References
