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PREDICTION OF 23RD SOLAR CYCLE USING THE STATISTICAL AND PRECURSOR METHOD

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  • URLhttps://db.koreascholar.com/Article/Detail/390291
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천문학논총 (Publications of the Korean Astronomical Society)
한국천문학회 (Korean Astronomical Society)
초록

We have made intensive calculations on the maximum relative sunspot number and the date of solar maximum of 23rd solar cycle, by using the statistical and precursor methods to predict solar activity cycle. According to our results of solar data processing by statistical method, solar maximum comes at between February and July of 2000 year and at that time, the smoothed sunspot number will reach to 114.3~122.8. while precursor method gives rather dispersed value of 118~171 maximum sunspot number. It is found that prediction by statistical method using smoothed relative sunspot number is more accurate than by any method to use any data of 10.7cm radio fluxes and geomagnetic aa, Ap indexes, from the full analysis of solar cycle pattern of these data. In fact, current ascending pattern of 23rd solar cycle supports positively our predicted values. Predicted results by precursor method for Apavg,aa31−36 Apavg,aa31−36 indexes show similar values to those by statistical method. Therefore, these indexes can be used as new precursors for the prediction of 23rd or next solar cycle.

저자
  • 장세진(경희대학교 우주과학과) | JANG SE JIN (Department of Astronomy & Space Science, Kyung Hee University)
  • 김갑성(경희대학교 우주과학과) | KIM KAP-SUNG (Department of Astronomy & Space Science, Kyung Hee University)