The purpose of this study is to construct an outlook model that is consistent with the “Fisheries Outlook” monthly published by the Fisheries Outlook Center of the Korea Maritime Institute(KMI). In particular, it was designed as a partial equilibrium model limited to abalone items, but a model was constructed with a dynamic ecological equation model(DEEM) system taking into account biological breeding and shipping time. The results of this study are significant in that they can be used as basic data for model development of various items in the future. In this study, due to the limitation of monthly data, the market equilibrium price was calculated by using the recursive model construction method to be calculated directly as an inverse demand. A model was built in the form of a structural equation model that can explain economic causality rather than a conventional time series analysis model. The research results and implications are as follows. As a result of the estimation of the amount of young seashells planting, it was estimated that the coefficient of the amount of young seashells planting from the previous year was estimated to be 0.82 so that there was no significant difference in the amount of young seashells planting this year and last year. It is also meant to be nurtured for a long time after aquaculture license and limited aquaculture area(edge style) and implantation. The economic factor, the coefficient of price from last year was estimated at 0.47. In the case of breeding quantity, it was estimated that the longer the breeding period, the larger the coefficient of breeding quantity in the previous period. It was analyzed that the impact of shipments on the breeding volume increased. In the case of shipments, the coefficient of production price was estimated unelastically. As the period of rearing increased, the estimation coefficient decreased. Such result indicates that the expected price, which is an economic factor variable and that had less influence on the intention to shipments. In addition, the elasticity of the breeding quantity was estimated more unelastically as the breeding period increased. This is also correlated with the relative coefficient size of the expected price. The abalone supply and demand forecast model developed in this study is significant in that it reduces the prediction error than the existing model using the ecological equation modeling system and the economic causal model. However, there are limitations in establishing a system of simultaneous equations that can be linked to production and consumption between industries and items. This is left as a future research project.

Abstract
I. 서 론
Ⅱ. 분석 모형 및 자료
    1. 공급함수
    2. 역수요함수
Ⅲ. 추정 결과
    1. 치패 입식량
    2. 연산별 양성물량
    3. 연산별 출하물량
    4. 산지가격(역수요 함수)
    5. 예측력 검정
Ⅳ. 결 론
REFERENCES

• 한석호(충남대학교 농업경제학과) | Suk-Ho Han (Dept. of Agricultural Economics, Chungnam National University)
• 장희수(충남대학교 농업경제학과) | Hee-Soo Jang (Dept. of Agricultural Economics, Chungnam National University)
• 허수진(한국해양수산개발원 수산정책사업본부 수산업관측센터 전문연구원) | Su-Jin Heo (Fisheries Policy Implementation Division, Korea Maritime Institute)
• 이남수(한국해양수산개발원 수산정책사업본부 수산업관측센터장) | Nam-Su Lee (Fisheries Policy Implementation Division, Korea Maritime Institute) Corresponding author