논문 상세보기
pp.251-258
Sewer deterioration models are needed to forecast the remaining life expectancy of sewer networks by assessing their conditions. In this study, the serious defect (or condition state 3) occurrence probability, at which sewer rehabilitation program should be implemented, was evaluated using four probability distribution functions such as normal, lognormal, exponential, and Weibull distribution. A sample of 252 km of CCTV-inspected sewer pipe data in city Z was collected in the first place. Then the effective data (284 sewer sections of 8.15 km) with reliable information were extracted and classified into 3 groups considering the sub-catchment area, sewer material, and sewer pipe size. Anderson-Darling test was conducted to select the most fitted probability distribution of sewer defect occurrence as Weibull distribution. The shape parameters (β) and scale parameters (η ) of Weibull distribution were estimated from the data set of 3 classified groups, including standard errors, 95% confidence intervals, and log-likelihood values. The plot of probability density function and cumulative distribution function were obtained using the estimated parameter values, which could be used to indicate the quantitative level of risk on occurrence of CS3. It was estimated that sewer data group 1, group 2, and group 3 has CS3 occurrence probability exceeding 50% at 13th-year, 11th-year, and 16th-year after the installation, respectively. For every data groups, the time exceeding the CS3 occurrence probability of 90% was also predicted to be 27th- to 30th-year after the installation.
1. 서 론
2. 이 론
2.1 신뢰성 이론
2.2 Weibull 확률분포함수
3. 연구방법
4. 연구 결과
4.1 하수관로 조사결과 데이터의 특성
4.2 Weibull 분포의 적합성 및 매개변수 추정
4.3 결함발생의 위험도 분석
5. 결 론
References
