We aimed to predict the Italian ryegrass (IRG) productivity change of introduced and domestic varieties based on climate factors and identify suitable areas for IRG cultivation using the RCP 8.5 scenario. The minimum mean air temperature in January showed the highest correlation with productivity. The ratio of possible and low productivity areas was high in Gangwondo, and the ratio of suitable and best suitable areas was relatively high in the central and southern regions in the past 30 years. The change in the IRG cultivation area was found to be 26.9% in the best suitable area between 1981–2010 but increased significantly to 88.9% between 2090s. In the IRG suitability comparison classes between domestic and introduced cultivars, the ratio of suitable and best suitable areas was relatively high in the domestic varieties during the past 30 years. However, there is almost no difference between the IRG domestic and introduced varieties in the IRG suitability classes after the 2050s. These results can predict changes in the IRG suitability classes between domestic and introduced cultivars according to the climate change scenario, but there are limitations in accurately predicting the productivity of IRG because the results may vary depending on other environmental factors.

ABSTRACT
Ⅰ. INTRODUCTION
Ⅱ. MATERIALS AND METHODS
    1. Digital climate maps of climate change scenario inSouth Korea
    2. Establishment of suitability classes and estimation ofproductivity for IRG cultivation
    3. Establishment of suitability classes
Ⅲ. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
    1. Prediction of IRG suitability classes according toclimate change scenario
    2. Comparison of IRG suitability classes between domesticand introduced cultivars
Ⅳ. CONCLUSIONS
Ⅴ. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Ⅵ. REFERENCES

• Jeong Sung Jung(Grassland & Forage Division, National Institute of Animal Science) Corresponding author
• Hyung Soo Park(Grassland & Forage Division, National Institute of Animal Science)
• Hee Jung Ji(Grassland & Forage Division, National Institute of Animal Science)
• Ki Yoong Kim(Grassland & Forage Division, National Institute of Animal Science)
• Se Young Lee(Grassland & Forage Division, National Institute of Animal Science)
• Bae Hun Lee(Grassland & Forage Division, National Institute of Animal Science)