As a nation experiencing rapid economic growth, South Korea and its government have made a continuous effort toward efficient research investments to achieve transformation of the Korean industry for the fourth industrial revolution. To achieve the maximum effectiveness of the research investments, it is necessary to evaluate its funding’s worth and default risk. Thus, incorporating the concepts of the Black-Scholes-Merton model and the Greeks, this study develops a default-risk evaluation model in the foundation of a system dynamics methodology. By utilizing the proposed model, this study estimates the monetary worth and the default risks of research funding in the public and private sectors of Information and Communication technologies, along with the sensitivity of the R&D economic worth of research funding to changes in a given parameter. This study finds that the public sector has more potential than the private sector in terms of monetary worth and that the default risks of three types of research funding are relatively high. Through a sensitivity analysis, the results indicate that uncertainty in volatility, operation period, and a risk-free interest rate has trivial impacts on the monetary worth of research funding, while volatility has large impacts on the default risk among the uncertain factors.

1. 서 론
2. 문헌 연구
3. 연구방법
    3.1 블랙-숄즈-멀튼 모델
    3.2 시스템 다이나믹스
4. 연구결과
    4.1 기술투자금액의 경제적 가치
    4.2 기술투자금액의 실패확률
    4.3 옵션민감도 분석
    4.4 민감도 분석
5. 결 론
References

• Jaehun Sim(창원대학교 스마트제조융합협동과정) | 심재훈 Corresponding Author